DIVISION OF ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS
DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION, STATE OF FLORIDA
SUGAR CANE GROWERS COOPERATIVE OF CASE NOS. 92-3038
FLORIDA, a Florida agricultural 92-3039
cooperative marketing association; ROTH 92-3040
FARMS, INC.; and WEDGWORTH FARMS. INC.,
and
FLORIDA SUGAR CANE LEAGUE, INC.; and
UNITED STATES SUGAR CORPORATION,
and
FLORIDA FRUIT AND VEGETABLE ASSOCIATION,
LEWIS POPE FARMS, W. E. SCHLECHTER &
SONS, INC., and HUNDLEY FARMS, INC.,
Petitioners
vs.
SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGMENT DISTRICT,
an Agency of the State of Florida,
Respondent,
and
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
MICCOSUKEE TRIBE OF INDIANS, THE
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION, THE FLORIDA WILDLIFE
FEDERATION, THE FLORIDA AUDUDON SOCIETY
and THE SIERRA CLUB,
Respondent-Intervenors.
_________________________________________/
DEPOSITION OF: DR. F. LARRY LEISTRITZ
TAKEN: March 16, 1994
VOLUME 3
Accurate Stenotype Reporters, Inc.
DEPOSITION OF: DR. F. LARRY LEISTRITZ
TAKEN AT THE INSTANCE OF: United States of America
Respondent-Intervenor
DATE: Wednesday, March 16, 1994
TIME: Commenced at 8:00 a.m.
Concluded at 2:10 p.m.
LOCATION: 315 South Calhoun Street
Tallahassee, Florida
REPORTED BY: ANITA M. PEKEROL, CCR, RPR,
CP, CM. Notary Public in
and for the State of
Florida at Large.
APPEARANCES:
REPRESENTING THE PETITIONERS SUGAR CANE GROWERS
COOPERATIVE OF FLORIDA, Florida agricultural
cooperative marketing association; ROTH FARMS,
INC. and WEDGEWORTH FARMS, INC.:
CAROLYN S. RAEPPLE, ESQUIRE
Hopping, Boyd, Green & Sams
123 South Calhoun Street
Post Office Box 6526
Tallahassee, Florida 32314
REPRESENTING RESPONDENT-INTERVENOR UNITED STATES
OF AMERICA:
KEITH E. SAXE, ESQUIRE
United States Department of Justice
601 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest
Room 879
Post Office Box 663
Washington, D.C. 20044
ALSO PRESENT:
Lonnie L. Jones, Ph.D.
Ronald D. Lacewell
Accurate Stenotype Reporters, Inc.
I_N_D_E_X _ _ _ _ _
WITNESS PAGE _______ ____
F._LARRY_LEISTRITZ __ _____ _________
Direct Examination by Mr. Saxe 214
CERTIFICATE_OF_REPORTER 363 ___________ __ ________
E_X_H_I_B_I_T_S _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
DEPOSITION_EXHIBITS: __________ ________
NUMBER DESCRIPTION PAGE ______ ___________ ____
13 Format for a table 283
14 Memorandum from Ann Orzech to
Eric Schubert, 7-28-93 285
15 Handwritten memorandum from Ann
Orzech to Eric Schubert, 7-28-93 287
16 Handwritten notes, 7-30-83 289
17 The Agricultural Crisis as it
Affects Rural Communites, by Gerald A.
Doeksens 296
18 Curriculum vitae of F. Larry Leistritz 347
19 Adequacy of the SWIM Plan's Cost
Benefit Analysis 357
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1 (VOLUME 3)
2
3 P_R_O_C_E_E_D_I_N_G_S _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
4 - - -
5 The following deposition of DR. F. LARRY
6 LEISTRITZ was taken on oral examination, pursuant to
7 notice, for purposes of discovery, for use as evidence,
8 and for such other uses and purposes as may be permitted
9 by the applicable and governing rules. Reading and
10 signing is not waived.
11 - - -
12 Thereupon,
13 DR. F. LARRY LEISTRITZ
14 having been previously duly sworn, was examined and
15 testified further as follows:
16 DIRECT EXAMINATION (Continued)
17 BY MR. SAXE:
18 Q Good morning, Professor Leistritz. We're
19 in day two of the continued deposition. The same rules
20 apply today as yesterday.
21 In your testimony yesterday, we talked at
22 one point about the public facilities and services
23 impact analysis that might have been done by RPC.
24 I believe, if I recall correctly, you
25 indicated that except to the extent of your work on
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1 things like the function for deriving changes in
2 population from job changes, that you didn't have any
3 involvement in the analysis that RPC might have done
4 about public services and facilities impacts; is that
5 correct?
6 A Yes.
7 Q I believe you, also, indicated that you
8 didn't have any opinions about whatever methodology they
9 ultimately used in any such analysis; is that correct?
10 A That's correct.
11 Q And that you had not reviewed results of
12 analysis that they might rely upon at trial; is that
13 correct?
14 A Not at this point. I have not yet been
15 asked to review the public service and fiscal impact
16 results.
17 Q And you did not have any opinions on
18 whether or not any conclusions that might have been
19 reached were sound or unsound; is that correct?
20 A That's correct.
21 Q With respect to population impact
22 assessment, and by that I mean inmigration and
23 outmigration from and to the EAA caused by
24 implementation of the SWIM Plan or alternatives, you,
25 also, indicated that you had limited involvement in some
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1 of the component pieces of that analysis?
2 A Yes.
3 Q And you indicated, I believe, that you had
4 a role in determining the distribution of employment
5 impacts from STA construction between local and
6 non-local workers?
7 A Yes.
8 Q That you had had some obvious role in the
9 determination of the relationship between jobs and
10 population loss insofar as the function was concerned?
11 A Yes.
12 Q And that you had had some involvement in
13 the choice of RIMS multipliers for the secondary
14 employment impact; is that correct?
15 A Yes.
16 Q But is it correct that you did not have any
17 other involvement in whatever methodology RPC may be
18 using for estimating population impacts from the SWIM
19 Plan or alternatives?
20 A I think that is correct. I have not looked
21 at their spread sheet model that has been assembled. I
22 have not reviewed that in its entirety. What you
23 summarized, I think, sounds to me, essentially, correct,
24 yes.
25 Q Do you have any other opinions about the
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1 methodology that may be being used by RPC to estimate
2 population impacts?
3 A The question is beyond the dimensions that
4 we have already covered.
5 Q And, again, those would be the leakage from
6 the STA construction issue, the function for determining
7 changes in population from changes in jobs and the
8 choices of the RIMS multipliers for secondary employment
9 impacts?
10 A Those were my major areas where I was
11 involved, so those would be the areas where I would have
12 a basis for having opinions, yes.
13 Q And are you familiar with the methodologies
14 that are being used by RPC in actual analysis that
15 they're doing on population impacts?
16 A I have had the opportunity to review
17 different memorandums that outline some dimensions of
18 what they were doing. Some of those were things that we
19 identified as exhibits yesterday. So, to that extent,
20 to the extent that I have had an opportunity to review
21 some of the dimensions, I probably have opinions about
22 the appropriateness of what is being proposed.
23 On the other hand, I have not seen the
24 final model in its entirety.
25 Q Just referring, then, specifically, to
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1 those exhibits that fit that category, looking at
2 Exhibit Number 2, if you would --
3 A Okay.
4 Q -- that is your February 6th memo to Ron
5 Luke --
6 A Sure.
7 Q -- the section on local employment and
8 construction of STAs --
9 A Exactly.
10 Q -- and the selection of multipliers for EAA
11 analysis --
12 A Yes.
13 Q -- does that describe all of your opinions
14 concerning those two issues as they would relate to
15 RPC's analysis of population impacts?
16 A I would say that summarizes my opinions on
17 those two issues, yes.
18 Q As far as the function for evaluating
19 changes in population based on changes in employment, if
20 you would look at Exhibit 11 --
21 A Yes.
22 Q -- does the first page of Exhibit 11
23 express your views on the function that was referred to
24 by you in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh,
25 eighth, through the end of this document on Exhibit 11?
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1 A Yes.
2 Q Did you submit any other information to
3 RPC, either in writing or orally, on the issue of the
4 function that is referenced in Exhibit 11?
5 A Not that I recall, no.
6 Q Going back to the population impact
7 assessment that RPC may be doing, the three elements
8 that you were involved in, then, were the leakage on STA
9 construction, the population jobs function and the
10 choice of the RIMS multipliers, correct?
11 A Correct.
12 Q And those are referenced in Exhibit 2 and
13 Exhibit 11?
14 A Correct.
15 Q To your knowledge, are there any other
16 materials that you have provided to RPC, either written
17 or non-written, that provide information about your work
18 on those areas of their analysis?
19 A No.
20 Q And that would include any materials that
21 would discuss your opinions concerning those aspects of
22 the analysis?
23 A Perhaps I should make sure that I properly
24 understand the question. Over time, for instance, I
25 have provided to RPC copies of many articles, references
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1 and the like which bear on the issues that we have just
2 discussed; selection of multipliers, local versus
3 non-local employment, relationship between job loss and
4 population change. Many of those or some of those, of
5 course, are referenced in these documents. But I think
6 these exhibits that we have mentioned really summarize
7 the work, the opinions and so on specific to this
8 situation.
9 Q With respect to the issue of population
10 migration response in a declining area or where there
11 are employment impacts, yesterday we discussed Exhibit
12 Number 10, your article with Alan Schuler on threshold
13 population levels?
14 A Yes.
15 Q Are there other articles that you have
16 identified or provided to RPC that pertain to this issue
17 in particular?
18 A The population change relative to
19 employment change. For instance, the Exhibit 11
20 memorandum then references three other documents, each
21 of which attempts to be a rather extensive review of the
22 literature relative to economic demographic models,
23 relative to socioeconomic resource impact development.
24 And third is a book dealing with farm financial crisis.
25 Basically, impacts of responses to the farm economic
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1 situation in the midwest.
2 These works and works referenced and
3 reviewed in them represent a relatively large body of
4 literature dealing, generally, with the topic of the
5 relationship between employment change, and population
6 change and these kinds of issues.
7 Q Would the article by Gerald Doeksen,
8 D-O-E-K-S-E-N, titled The Agricultural Crisis as it
9 Affects Rural Communities, be included within that set
10 of materials?
11 A That would, I'm 99 percent certain, be one
12 of the works that would have been referenced, probably
13 in the Murdock and Leistritz book. That would be an
14 example of the kind of articles that were reviewed and
15 referenced in some of those works.
16 Q Another article that has been provided with
17 your production was by Janet Ayres, A-Y-R-E-S, yourself
18 and Kenneth Stone, titled Rural Retail Business
19 Survival: Implications for Community Developers.
20 Would that be another article that you have
21 identified or provided to RPC on this issue?
22 A Yes. And that was included, I'm sure, in
23 our document production.
24 Q Yes, it was.
25 Another article that was included in the
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1 production was by yourself and a number of other
2 authors, and it is titled Revitalizing the Retail Trade
3 Sector in Rural Communities: Experiences of Thirteen
4 North Dakota Towns.
5 Would that be another one of these
6 articles?
7 A Yes.
8 Q Are there any other articles that are, in
9 your mind, of special significance in relation to an
10 effort to estimate population impacts in the EAA from
11 the implementation of the SWIM Plan or alternatives?
12 A I guess the three that I referenced in
13 Exhibit 11 represented my view of some salient works.
14 Q And there are no others that come to mind
15 as particularly significant? Let me rephrase that.
16 You have indicated that those referenced
17 works in Exhibit 11 anthologize or, to some extent,
18 reference other works. But besides the ones that we
19 have named here today, are there any that you would
20 characterize as particularly relevant to the analysis of
21 the EAA population impacts?
22 A I don't believe so, no.
23 Q In addition to Exhibit 11, are there any
24 other memoranda or conversations that reflect your
25 opinions in this area of population migration response,
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1 other than the articles that we have just described?
2 A I don't believe so.
3 Q On the issue of critical minimum market
4 sizes for retail and consumer service establishments,
5 Exhibit 10 is your article on threshold population
6 levels?
7 A Right.
8 Q Are there any other materials that you have
9 provided to RPC or identified for RPC, specifically,
10 relevant to this aspect of RPC's analysis?
11 A Earlier in the project, we had talked about
12 gathering data on sales per retail establishment,
13 basically, from the Florida Statistical Abstract and the
14 Census of Retailers, as another item of information for
15 possible use in the analysis.
16 MR. SAXE: Could you read that answer back,
17 please?
18 (Requested portion read.)
19 BY MR. SAXE:
20 Q When you say we talked about gathering
21 data, who had those discussions?
22 A Okay. These were discussions between
23 myself, Eric Schubert and -- myself and Eric Schubert,
24 primarily.
25 Q All right.
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1 A On or about July of 1993.
2 Q And was data gathered on sales per
3 establishment?
4 A That's my understanding, yes. That's my
5 understanding, that data was gathered on sales per
6 establishment.
7 Q Did you gather that data?
8 A No.
9 Q It was gathered by RPC?
10 A That was my understanding.
11 Q Do you have an understanding of who at RPC
12 was involved in that?
13 A Eric Schubert, and possibly others.
14 Q What was your understanding about the use
15 to be made of that data?
16 A We had, basically, not discussed all
17 dimensions in the analysis in great detail.
18 Q What was your understanding, based on the
19 discussions that you did have?
20 A The thought was that if our impact analysis
21 included, for instance, estimates of changes in sales
22 volumes, then the sales per establishment might be of
23 interest in regard to estimating the numbers of
24 businesses that might be lost. That was the rationale
25 for suggesting that that would be a useful piece of
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1 information for Mr. Schubert to gather.
2 Q Did you express the opinion that it would
3 be a useful piece of information for Mr. Schubert to
4 gather?
5 A Yes.
6 Q You had indicated in your testimony
7 yesterday, when we were talking about the business
8 impact analysis that may be performed or may have been
9 performed by RPC, that you had given verbal comments to
10 Dr. Luke and Dr. Schubert, and interview notes after
11 your EAA trip; is that correct?
12 A Yes.
13 Q Would this, also, be additional information
14 that you gave to Dr. Schubert --
15 A Yes, sure.
16 Q -- in that area?
17 A Yes.
18 Q You indicated that, otherwise, you had only
19 worked on the function for deriving business impacts
20 from employment impacts, correct?
21 A Okay.
22 Q Are there any other areas of the business
23 impact analysis work that RPC might have done or be
24 doing that you have interacted with?
25 A Not really. Those are, really, the major
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1 things.
2 Q Beyond your conversation with Dr. Schubert
3 before data might have been gathered on sales per
4 establishment, did you have any subsequent exchanges or
5 interactions with RPC on this issue?
6 A I think I'll ask you to repeat the
7 question, sir.
8 Q Besides the conversation that you just
9 referred to with Dr. Schubert about gathering data on
10 sales per establishment from the Florida Statistical
11 Abstract and the Census of Retailers, which, as I
12 understand it, was before any such data might have been
13 collected; is that correct?
14 A That is a difficult question, in the sense
15 that our work on the project has been marked by some
16 starts and stops. We started probably in September of
17 '92, as I recall. Some analysis was done in late '92.
18 In fact, we were meeting about a year ago in regard to
19 deposition. We stopped for a number of months, and then
20 started, essentially, again, in the summer of '93, with
21 some additional analysis.
22 So, certain data were collected, I'm sure,
23 in the fall of '92. Updated and additional information
24 would have been collected in the summer of '93.
25 Q So, then, in fact, I believe you indicated
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1 that you had had conversation with Dr. Schubert around
2 the summer of '93 or July of '93?
3 A Yes.
4 Q So, at that point, did you understand that
5 some data may have been collected on sales per
6 establishment from those sources, the Florida
7 Statistical Abstract and the Census of Retailers?
8 A My recollection on those particular data
9 was that those were data that were yet to be collected.
10 Drawn together, as it were.
11 Q Were to be collected. In other words, had
12 not yet been collected?
13 A That's my recollection.
14 Q And then you, also, indicated that you
15 think that some further collection or some initial
16 collection was done by somebody at RPC after that
17 conversation?
18 A I believe I should say that I really don't
19 know. Really, in terms of meeting with Mr. Schubert in
20 July of '93, we discussed quite a range of data items.
21 We made extensive lists of things that were to be done,
22 checked on and the like. I cannot really say with
23 certainty what the disposition was of all of those
24 items.
25 Q Do you have any further understanding or
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1 information about the collection of this data, other
2 than what you have just indicated to me arose in your
3 July '93 conversation with Dr. Schubert?
4 A In general, it is my understanding that,
5 basically, the impact analysis did not really pursue
6 that particular approach, that particular data set or
7 approach. And that, in turn, is based on the type of
8 information that is available. The information
9 available from the RIMS multiplier analysis did not
10 really lend itself to the sales per establishment
11 approach to changes in numbers of businesses.
12 Q Now, the RIMS multipliers would have been
13 used to derive the predicate changes in employment from
14 the implementation of the SWIM Plan, correct?
15 A Yes.
16 Q The data on sales per establishment, I
17 believe you indicated, would have been used or was
18 discussed for its potential to be used in determining
19 business impacts?
20 A Yes.
21 Q By that, is it correct to say changes in
22 the number of businesses because of implementation of
23 the SWIM Plan?
24 A Yes.
25 Q So, when you say that in your understanding
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1 this type of data on sales by establishment from the
2 Florida Statistical Abstract and the Census of Retailers
3 was not used in the methodology employed or being
4 employed by RPC, do you mean not used for business
5 impact analysis?
6 A Yes. At the point where we talked about
7 gathering sales per establishment, this would be prior
8 to final decisions about a number of dimensions of the
9 impact analysis, the multipliers to be used and the
10 like. And depending on the decisions made with regard
11 to one stage of the analysis, then that logically
12 affects the approaches that may be relevant at
13 subsequent stages.
14 MR. SAXE: Could you read that answer back,
15 please?
16 (Requested portion read.)
17 BY MR. SAXE:
18 Q Can you elaborate on that for me?
19 A Well, I guess I'm not quite sure what the
20 question is.
21 Q Okay, let's take it maybe one step at a
22 time.
23 In your understanding, the data on sales by
24 establishment, that you discussed with Dr. Schubert in
25 July of '93, has not formed any part of the analysis,
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1 the methodology being used in the analysis, by RPC?
2 A Yes, I believe that is correct.
3 Q Why is that the case? Let me rephrase
4 that.
5 Why do you understand that no use is being
6 made of this type of data in their analysis?
7 A Because of the nature of information, the
8 aggregate nature of information, that is obtained from
9 the RIMS multiplier system really would not lend itself
10 to using the sales per establishment data.
11 Q When you say would not lend itself, what
12 does that mean?
13 A Would not be compatible or congruent.
14 Would not be compatible or congruent with using sales
15 per establishment data to try to estimate number of
16 business closings.
17 Q Let me clarify. Did you express any
18 opinions to RPC, either in writing or orally, about what
19 methodologies should or should not be used in estimating
20 business impacts in the EAA?
21 A I think what I might have expressed might
22 have been in the form of data sources to explore, and
23 alternatives that might be considered.
24 Q And what were those opinions?
25 A They would be summarized in some of the
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1 memoranda, I guess. As I said, lists of data sources to
2 explore, things like that.
3 Q Have we reviewed those as exhibits?
4 A I think we have.
5 Q In the deposition today and yesterday?
6 A To a large extent, I think.
7 Q Could you just draw my attention to which
8 ones describe your opinions about the appropriate
9 sources of data and methodologies for business impact
10 analysis?
11 A As I say, in some of the conversations and
12 memoranda, we had lists of data sources to explore, that
13 sort of thing. I don't know that those really
14 constitute opinions about business impact. We may be
15 having a problem with semantics here.
16 Q Would the selection of data sources for use
17 in analysis be part of the methodology for performing an
18 analysis, in your opinion?
19 A Yes.
20 Q Can you refer me to specific documents that
21 would discuss that aspect of the methodology for
22 business impact analysis?
23 A Once again, I would say that my comments or
24 input on business impact analysis could probably best be
25 described as a few suggestions about possible data
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1 sources to explore, or the possible alternatives that
2 might be considered, as opposed to laying out a proposed
3 methodology.
4 Q So, would it be safe to say that these were
5 fairly preliminary discussions?
6 A Yes. That would be a very good
7 characterization.
8 Q These were back in around the summer of
9 last year?
10 A Yes.
11 Q Do you have any opinions about the
12 methodology that RPC should have used in doing business
13 impact analysis?
14 A I guess I'm not quite sure I understand the
15 question.
16 Q Do you have any opinions about whatever
17 methodology RPC may have been or are using to do
18 business impact analysis?
19 A Well, I think the memo item Exhibit 11
20 really represents opinion about the relationship that
21 they developed relating to job change, business change.
22 And it is my opinion that that is consistent with the
23 literature in the area.
24 Q If this question is asked and answered,
25 forgive me, I don't intend to. But have you provided
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1 any other opinions to RPC about the appropriate
2 methodology for the business impact analysis, other than
3 the preliminary suggestion of data sources to explore,
4 the conversation with Dr. Schubert in July about
5 gathering data on sales per establishment and what is in
6 Exhibit 11?
7 A We had, also, discussed the notes from
8 interviews conducted in the EAA. And I think that would
9 summarize my input in that area.
10 Q Do you know what methodology RPC is using
11 to estimate business impact in the EAA?
12 A Well, if we're defining business impact in
13 this case as the number of businesses that might close,
14 then it is my understanding that the material in Exhibit
15 11 would summarize what they're doing.
16 Q Have you reviewed other material that
17 references or contains RPC's analysis of business
18 impacts, other than that referenced in Exhibit 11?
19 A I don't believe so.
20 Q Have you had other conversations with RPC
21 about the results of their business impact analysis?
22 A No.
23 Q Do you know what conclusions RPC may have
24 reached about business impacts in the EAA in terms of
25 quantities?
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1 A No.
2 Q Do you have any opinions about any
3 conclusions that they might have reached, whether
4 they're correct or not?
5 A I think I'll ask you to restate the
6 question.
7 Q Well, you have indicated that you don't
8 know what business impacts that they have come up with;
9 is that true?
10 A Right.
11 Q So, then, it stands to reason that you
12 don't have any opinions about whether their conclusions
13 are sound or not in that regard?
14 A Since I don't know what the conclusions
15 are, it would probably be premature for me to have an
16 opinion about their soundness.
17 Could I propose a two-minute break? Long
18 enough to get another cup of coffee?
19 MR. SAXE: Certainly.
20 (Brief pause.)
21 MR. SAXE: Back on the record.
22 BY MR. SAXE:
23 Q With respect to property value impact
24 analysis, you worked on the function that you understand
25 is being used to determine property value impacts based
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1 on changes in employment?
2 A Yes.
3 Q Is that function all that is required for
4 deriving property value impacts, in your opinion?
5 A I guess as I indicated in Exhibit 11, it
6 seems to me that the function is a reasonable approach
7 to relating changes in employment to changes in property
8 values.
9 Q How does one calculate the changes in
10 property value using that function? Does the function
11 yield a dollar number change in property values when you
12 plug in the change in employment?
13 A The application, as I understand it, is
14 illustrated in the tables that are included as part of
15 Exhibit 11. And as we see then at the top of each
16 column, there is percent of jobs lost. And then as we
17 track that down, we see, in the next to the last item in
18 the column, the proportion of assessed valuation
19 remaining, et cetera.
20 Q So, would it be correct to say that the
21 function yields a percentage or a proportion change?
22 A Yes.
23 Q And then that proportion change is
24 multiplied by some multiplier to get the actual dollar
25 change?
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1 A That's my understanding, yes.
2 Q What is the multiplier that it is
3 multiplied with?
4 A And, again, this could best be termed, I
5 think, speculation. My assumption or speculation is
6 that this percentage would be multiplied by a value
7 which represents the baseline property valuation, to
8 which then the property valuation corresponds to zero
9 percent job loss.
10 Q When you prefaced your answer with
11 reference to speculation, by that do you mean that you
12 don't know for a fact just how RPC may be using this
13 function to actually calculate?
14 A I have not reviewed the model in its
15 entirety, so I do not know for a fact just exactly how
16 this function is applied within the overall modeling
17 system.
18 Q So, then, you don't have an opinion about
19 any methodology that RPC may be using beyond the actual
20 derivation of the function itself; is that correct?
21 A Yes. At this point in time, I don't feel I
22 have the basis to have an opinion beyond that.
23 Q And you don't have an opinion, therefore,
24 about their application of the full methodology for
25 calculating property value impacts?
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1 A Right.
2 Q Then it is, also, true, is it not, that you
3 don't have an opinion about any results that they may
4 have obtained by applying the methodology?
5 A Correct.
6 Q Changes in local tax or local tax impact
7 analysis that RPC may be performing, I believe you
8 indicated yesterday that you have not had any
9 involvement in that analysis?
10 A Right.
11 Q Do you have any opinions about local tax
12 impact analysis that you have provided to RPC, either in
13 writing or orally?
14 A No.
15 Q Do you know whether RPC is doing social
16 impact analysis involving other elements, like crime and
17 domestic violence?
18 A I don't know to what extent they're
19 pursuing those areas.
20 Q Have you had any involvement in any
21 analysis of crime impacts?
22 A No.
23 Q By RPC?
24 A No.
25 Q So, you don't know whether they're
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1 performing any empirical analysis of crime impacts?
2 A No, I don't know.
3 Q Do you have any opinions about
4 methodologies or a methodology that should be used to
5 analyze crime impacts in the EAA?
6 A No.
7 Q How about domestic violence impacts?
8 A No.
9 Q No opinions?
10 A No opinions.
11 Q Same for self-esteem impacts?
12 A Right, no opinions.
13 Q How about family impacts?
14 A No, no opinions.
15 Q Is it correct that you have been involved
16 in some study of farmer bankruptcies in the midwest?
17 A Yes.
18 Q Could you tell me something about those?
19 A In North Dakota, I was in charge of,
20 project leader, for two studies of people leaving
21 farming during the 1980s. We did a survey of people
22 leaving farming in 1986, and a second one in 1989. And
23 these represented interviews with well over 200
24 households who had left farming, all of whom had left
25 farming within five years before the time that we did
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1 the interviews.
2 Some percentage of those, as I recall,
3 between 10 and 20 percent, had actually gone through
4 bankruptcy procedures. But, in any event, they all
5 could be characterized as people who left farming for
6 reasons other than retirement during this period of the
7 1980s.
8 Q And this was in a particular area in the
9 midwest?
10 A North Dakota.
11 Q Have you had any discussions with RPC about
12 the analysis that you performed concerning the
13 bankruptcies during that period in North Dakota?
14 A Yes.
15 Q Okay.
16 A In general terms, I am sure I provided the
17 RPC with copies of the two research reports and at least
18 one journal article summarizing the findings from those
19 studies. For that matter, the book, the Farm Financial
20 Crisis, that is referenced in one of the exhibits
21 contains a good deal of information from those studies.
22 So, I related to them the general findings
23 and, as I recall, we discussed, in general terms, to
24 what extent those findings might be applicable to the
25 situation in the EAA.
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1 Q You did discuss to what extent those
2 findings might be applicable to the situation in the
3 EAA?
4 A In a general way.
5 Q What did you indicate in those discussions?
6 A Well, I think that one area that we
7 discussed was that the type of farming would be
8 substantially different in this area of North Dakota
9 where those studies had been done, compared to the EAA.
10 And I guess my opinion was that that would limit the
11 direct applicability of our study findings to the EAA
12 situation.
13 Q In your opinion, notwithstanding
14 limitations, do your North Dakota studies from the
15 surveys in '86 and '89 provide some basis for drawing
16 inferences about social impacts that may result in the
17 EAA from implementation of the SWIM Plan alternatives?
18 A They certainly could be one of the things
19 considered, among others, in drawing such inferences.
20 Q Do you have any opinions about any
21 functional relationship between crime and economic
22 impact?
23 A No. Analysis of crime rates and so on has
24 not been something where I have really done previous
25 work. It is not an area where I would feel that I had
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1 the background to express an opinion.
2 Q Do you have any opinion about any
3 functional relationship between domestic violence and
4 economic impacts?
5 A I would make the same response. That is
6 not an area where I feel that I have the background to
7 formulate an opinion.
8 Q And the same would be true, I take it, of
9 self-esteem and the family?
10 A Yes.
11 Q And yet, you do indicate that the North
12 Dakota studies from the '80s that you discussed with RPC
13 might be used as some basis for inference about social
14 impacts in the EAA, correct?
15 A Again, analysis of social impacts is not
16 really my area, but based on methods that are used for
17 assessing impacts in other dimensions, it would seem
18 that one fundamental approach is often to examine
19 experience in what might seem, in the broad sense, to be
20 analogous cases or situations.
21 So, in that sense, then our North Dakota
22 study could be considered along with other studies
23 involving economic decline, economic restructuring and
24 the like as input to someone's effort to formulate
25 opinions with regard to the dimensions that you are
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1 talking about.
2 Q Is the key to the suitability of studies
3 like your North Dakota studies as a basis for inference
4 about social impacts in the EAA, the degree of
5 similarity between the conditions in the two areas?
6 A I would think that would be a major factor.
7 Q And you did indicate that because the type
8 of farming is different between the two areas, that
9 would limit the suitability of the North Dakota studies
10 as a basis for inference on social impacts in the EAA?
11 A Although I'm not attempting to formulate
12 opinions about social impacts, it would seem to me that
13 the degree of similarity or difference between the
14 areas, the type of farming, the characteristics of the
15 people involved and so on, would be major factors
16 affecting the applicability, "the transferability" of
17 findings.
18 Q Besides the opinion that I think you
19 indicated that you had expressed in conversations with
20 RPC about that limitation, namely, the differences in
21 the types of farming, did you express any other
22 opinions, that you recall, about the use of your North
23 Dakota studies as a basis for inference on social
24 impacts in the EAA?
25 A I think we pretty well covered it.
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1 Q Were there particular categories of social
2 impact that were discussed or analyzed in the North
3 Dakota studies that we have been talking about?
4 A We asked the respondents about a variety of
5 experiences that they might or might not have
6 experienced within the past. I believe it was the past
7 two years. And the list was lengthy. It was things
8 like have you been divorced, or have you -- it was a
9 long list. The summarization of those studies is
10 included in my documents somewhere, so rather than try
11 to recall a lot of specifics, if this is important, we
12 can probably find one of the documents that summarizes
13 what we did.
14 I would not characterize what we did as a
15 social impact analysis, per se.
16 Q Then would it be safe to say that you
17 didn't quantify social impacts in any way?
18 A Right.
19 Q Was it a qualitative analysis of social
20 impacts?
21 A I guess, again, I would not characterize it
22 as a social impact analysis, per se. What we did was
23 quantitative, in the sense of we were doing a survey, so
24 that in terms of things like have you been divorced, et
25 cetera, have you gone through bankruptcy, and all of
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1 these different things, the report then summarizes that
2 "X" percent of respondents said, yes, they had gone
3 through bankruptcy and the rest hadn't. This many had
4 been divorced and this many hadn't.
5 Q So, it was quantitative, not just with
6 respect to the antecedent conditions or the causes, but,
7 also, with respect to some consequences you did, in
8 fact, quantify divorce rates?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Were the samples of interviewees
11 statistically designed to be representative samples or
12 anything like that?
13 A That was the effort, yes.
14 Q To your recollection, I understand that is
15 not something that you necessarily referred to for
16 purposes of this deposition, but besides divorce rates,
17 did you quantify anything else in the way of consequent
18 conditions to the economic distress that these
19 interviewees went through?
20 A We, basically, quantified a good deal of
21 information in terms of what were they doing at present.
22 Were they employed? In what type of occupation or
23 industry? What was their income for the last year?
24 Information about assets, and debts and this sort of
25 thing. So, we were, basically, quantifying what their
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1 present situation might be in a number of dimensions.
2 Q Employment, income, assets and debts,
3 although those certainly sound socioeconomic, they sound
4 more, in a sense, economic than social. With respect to
5 the social categories that I named, of crime, domestic
6 violence, self-esteem, family, you mentioned divorce
7 statistics that you provided. Were there any other
8 purely social findings that were quantified in the
9 analysis, that you recall?
10 A As I mentioned before, it wasn't really
11 geared as, primarily, a social analysis. Some of the
12 indicators might be of some interest to people doing
13 social impact work, but we had not set out to do a
14 "social impact analysis" in that study.
15 Q So, then, it would be safe to say that you
16 didn't derive any conclusions about a functional
17 relationship between divorce and economic impact?
18 A Right. I did not.
19 Q But the data and the tabulation of the
20 data, in your view, might be used by someone undertaking
21 such an analysis of a relationship between divorce and
22 economic impact?
23 A Again, this area of social effects is not
24 one where I, normally, formulate opinions, et cetera.
25 It seems to me at least conceivable that some of the
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1 findings from studies like the ones that I have
2 described to you, the two that we did in North Dakota,
3 could be used, along with other information, by
4 individuals seeking to formulate opinions about
5 relationship of economic restructuring, economic
6 distress and divorce.
7 Q Other than the references to the literature
8 on population migration response in a declining area,
9 and the material that is discussed in Exhibit 11, did
10 you apprise RPC of any opinions or pertinent
11 information, in your view, from your research showing a
12 decline in rural communities?
13 A Not that I recall.
14 Q I would like to go back for a minute to a
15 topic that we discussed at some length yesterday; the
16 criteria and other methodology that RPC may be using for
17 determining when agricultural land comes out of
18 production. We had had some fairly extensive discussion
19 about Exhibit 2. If you would, take a look at that
20 exhibit, again.
21 A All right. Agricultural land, et cetera.
22 Q Other than the information and opinions
23 that may be provided in the agricultural land section of
24 this memorandum, did you provide any other input to RPC
25 in their formulation of the methodology with respect to
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1 when land comes out of production?
2 A No.
3 Q Did you give them any input that may not
4 have been in writing? Significant input in conversation
5 that would supplement this memo?
6 A Not that I recall.
7 Q And this would include the sub-issue of the
8 grower's subsidy from the mill?
9 A Yes.
10 Q On the issue of the allocation of STA
11 construction impacts and operation impacts between local
12 and non-local workers, is it correct to refer to that as
13 leakage, just as shorthand? Let me rephrase that. Is
14 that what you understand is being referred to in
15 references that RPC might make to the term "leakage"?
16 A My feeling is probably not. That probably,
17 as I understand it, the most common use of the term
18 "leakage" in these kinds of analyses often relates to
19 the expenditures which occur outside of the local study
20 area, such as purchases made outside of the EAA, in the
21 surrounding urban areas and that sort of thing.
22 The question of percentage of STA
23 construction workers who might be from outside of the
24 EAA would be related to the "leakage" phenomena, in the
25 sense that those STA workers who live outside of the EAA
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1 area would probably, normally, be expected to spend a
2 large part of their income outside of the EAA area, as
3 well.
4 Q So, then, it would be correct to say that
5 the allocation of STA construction and operation impacts
6 from implementation of the SWIM Plan in the EAA would be
7 one aspect of leakage, but leakage could include many
8 other aspects?
9 A Yes, yes.
10 Q Focusing on the allocation between local
11 and non-local workers of STA construction and operation
12 impacts, again, in Exhibit 2, there is a section that we
13 discussed yesterday at some length; the local employment
14 in construction of STAs?
15 A Yes.
16 Q This section pertains to the determination
17 of the appropriate distribution of those impacts between
18 local and non-local workers; is that correct?
19 A Yes.
20 Q Did you provide any other input to RPC on
21 this issue?
22 A No. I think this summarizes my input to
23 them on this issue.
24 Q So, you didn't provide anything? If you
25 might have had a conversation with RPC, in addition to
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1 this physical memo, it wouldn't have provided any
2 significant additional information?
3 A Right.
4 Q Or any significant inconsistent
5 information?
6 A That would be my feeling, yes.
7 Q Did you recommend a ratio to be used in
8 allocating the STA construction and operation impacts
9 between local versus non-local workers in this memo?
10 A Those percentages, I guess, would be
11 interpreted as a ratio between local and non-local
12 workers.
13 Q This section of the memo, as we discussed
14 yesterday, breaks down a local versus non-local worker
15 origin percentage into three different categories?
16 A Yes.
17 Q Do you know if RPC did an analysis of STA
18 operation and construction impacts that was so broken
19 down into those different categories?
20 A I don't know.
21 Q Can you do that with using the RIMS
22 multipliers that you referenced yesterday in exhibit --
23 I'm not sure of the exhibit number. Let me find that.
24 Let me rephrase the question while I look for an
25 exhibit.
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1 Can you break down the economic impacts of
2 STA construction and operation into three different
3 categories of skill and function, as you do in this
4 memo, when you are using the RIMS multipliers?
5 A It seems to me that breaking down the
6 local, non-local worker percentages by type of worker is
7 not inconsistent with the use of the RIMS multipliers in
8 the economic impact analysis.
9 Q Professor Leistritz, looking at Exhibit 4,
10 on the second page of this exhibit and the third page,
11 there were a number of references to RIMS II
12 multipliers; is that correct?
13 A Yes.
14 Q And one of them that you had indicated
15 would be the RIMS II multipliers for construction of
16 STAs, correct?
17 A Correct.
18 Q And that's the one referenced as 11.0703?
19 A Right.
20 Q Another one that you indicated would be the
21 multiplier for STA operation, correct?
22 A 12.0213.
23 Q Very good. If you would, tell me how would
24 you distribute the STA construction impacts between
25 local and non-local workers in the three different
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1 categories that are referenced in your memo in Exhibit
2 2, using the RIMS II multiplier?
3 A In general, my answer would be that there
4 would be several steps in the economic impact analysis.
5 That the assessment of local and non-local split on
6 numbers of workers would be an early step. There would
7 be some subsequent steps prior to application of the
8 RIMS multipliers. And one of those steps in between
9 would be some assumptions or estimates of leakage. That
10 is, how much of the expenditures for payrolls and that
11 sort of thing would we estimate would be retained within
12 the EAA that would be related, of course, to our
13 assumptions about the split of the workers.
14 MR. SAXE: Can we take a three-minute
15 break?
16 MS. RAEPPLE: Fine with me.
17 (Brief recess.)
18 BY MR. SAXE:
19 Q Professor Leistritz, in this memorandum,
20 Exhibit 2, the local employment in construction of STAs,
21 do you make a recommendation of a 50-50 ratio for
22 distributing the economic impacts of STA construction
23 and operation between local and non-local workers?
24 A The short answer is, no.
25 Q Just using one number, rather than broken
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1 down into the three different categories, would a 50-50
2 ratio for that distribution be the appropriate one, in
3 your opinion?
4 A I guess I would not offer an opinion
5 whether a 50-50 ratio would or would not be appropriate
6 without having perhaps more information.
7 Q In this section of the memo, is your
8 recommendation, effectively, with respect to
9 engineering, design and construction employment impacts,
10 that the ratio be one-to-nine?
11 A Right.
12 Q And with respect to skilled construction,
13 it would be two-to-eight?
14 A Right.
15 Q And with respect to unskilled, it would be
16 four-to-six?
17 A That's what we suggested in the memo.
18 Q Can you point to me any document that shows
19 the skill level data that you used in doing your
20 allocation?
21 A This was really based on information from
22 various interviews and, also, information with regard to
23 experience and other types of water and energy related
24 construction projects, as referenced in the couple of
25 sources that we cite there.
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1 Q In fact, we did have some discussion about
2 this yesterday?
3 A Right.
4 Q If I am recalling, that first sentence in
5 this section refers to analysis of secondary data, and
6 then interviews and we had some extended discussion
7 about that?
8 A Yes, we did.
9 Q On the secondary data, you had indicated
10 yesterday that there was information on skills,
11 occupations and educational levels that were available
12 through the U. S. Census and the Florida Job Service?
13 A Yes.
14 Q Did you do any analysis of that data that
15 formed a part of your identification or derivation of
16 these local, non-local ratios?
17 A In terms of a quantitative analysis, a
18 formula, something of this nature, no.
19 Q Could you describe for me what was done
20 using that data?
21 A Okay.
22 Q Could you first tell me, specifically,
23 whether the data that you used would be found in any of
24 the document and disk production in some form?
25 A I think the data, the census and the Job
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1 Service information, is undoubtedly or very likely to be
2 included among the documents produced by RPC, probably
3 in the form of memos and short tables.
4 Q Would that be the form that it came from
5 the U. S. Census Bureau and the Florida Job Service in?
6 A To the best of my recollection, from the
7 census, it would be information compiled from census
8 volumes or tapes. From the Job Service, it would
9 probably be a combination of statistics and perhaps
10 notes on interviews with Job Service personnel.
11 Q So, then, there is some processed form in
12 which the source data from the U. S. Census Bureau and
13 the source data from the Florida Job Service was
14 provided to you?
15 A Yes.
16 Q And those would be documents; is that
17 correct?
18 A That RPC produced sometime ago, I would
19 imagine.
20 Q When you say sometime ago, would it have
21 been before your deposition a year ago?
22 A Quite likely.
23 Q Can you describe it for me?
24 A Okay.
25 Q By this, I mean, the form in which it came
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1 to you?
2 A My recollection is that the census and Job
3 Service information was summarized in memos and in short
4 tables, showing, for instance, breakdown of the labor
5 force by occupation and this sort of thing.
6 Q Give me some other sorts of things?
7 A I believe I recall a memo, which one of Dr.
8 Luke's colleagues had prepared, which represented a
9 summarization of her interview with the local Job
10 Service office, I believe, in Belle Glade, where they
11 had commented on the skills of the work force,
12 employment, unemployment and related issues.
13 Q There are two breakdowns that you can give
14 me. One, you were describing the different ways in
15 which the data was broken down. I think you indicated
16 that it was broken down by -- what was it? Do you
17 remember the one type of breakdown that you just
18 testified to?
19 A Oh, I said the occupational breakdown of
20 the labor force.
21 Q And then the other, I was actually asking a
22 follow-up on that. I was asking you how else was the
23 data summarized, reported or broken down, besides
24 occupation?
25 A I am reasonably certain that another
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1 breakdown would be educational level, educational
2 attainment, for the population or the work force.
3 Q And the skills; is that correct?
4 A Yes.
5 Q You testified to this yesterday?
6 A Yes.
7 Q You referred to a memo that had been done
8 by one of Dr. Luke's colleagues?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Based on interviews with Florida Job
11 Service?
12 A That's my recollection.
13 Q Do you remember who that was?
14 A My recollection is that Jean Warner was the
15 person who had done the interview and the memo.
16 Q Any others that you recall in the way of
17 analysis of secondary data in forming these conclusions?
18 A Those are the salient things.
19 Q Does the Bureau of Economic Analysis give
20 any guidance to users about adjustments for workers
21 living outside of the impact area?
22 A I am not familiar with guidelines that they
23 may provide.
24 Q We touched on this yesterday, but I don't
25 think I asked you this question. Let me ask it to you
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1 now.
2 The number that you selected for STA
3 engineering, design and construction management, that 10
4 percent might be expected to come from the EAA, would it
5 be fair to say that that 10 percent number suggests that
6 there are very few, or one-in-10 engineers, who would be
7 required for STA construction that know anything about
8 digging canals?
9 A That would not be my interpretation. What
10 these percentages are intended to represent is an
11 estimate of the jobs of this category, engineering,
12 design and construction management category, in the STA
13 development, which would likely be filled by people
14 residing within the EAA, as opposed to residing outside
15 of the EAA.
16 A factor that seemed important for this
17 class of workers was, again, based on interviews there
18 in the region. It was my understanding that most of the
19 types of engineering firms, construction firms, that
20 might likely be involved in EAA development, it appeared
21 that most of those firms would be headquartered outside
22 of the EAA.
23 Since, again, experience with other types
24 of projects would suggest that most of the engineering,
25 design and management people involved in a project are
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1 likely to be long-term employees of the company that is
2 undertaking it, as opposed to people that are hired,
3 specifically, for the project, that was the basis for
4 the estimate of only one in 10 of this category of
5 workers being EAA residents.
6 Q Where would the construction firms that are
7 outside of the EAA likely be headquartered?
8 A Elsewhere in Palm Beach County, or in
9 adjacent counties, as I understand it. And perhaps more
10 widely. But it was my impression that quite a number of
11 these firms were headquartered elsewhere in Palm Beach
12 County, as well as the adjacent counties.
13 Q Thank you.
14 We had started off on leakage, and we got
15 into the subspecies of the 50-50 or other allocation
16 between local and non-local?
17 A Right.
18 Q You, also, indicated that there were other
19 census in which leakage might apply in the analysis that
20 RPC might be doing?
21 A Yes.
22 Q What other kinds of leakage?
23 A A one-dimensional leakage, as we referred
24 to, is if a substantial part of the workers live outside
25 of the EAA, then it would probably be estimated that
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1 relatively little of their income would be spent within
2 the EAA.
3 A second factor for those who do live
4 within the EAA is that their consumer expenditures will
5 likely occur within the EAA. But it may be that a
6 portion of their expenditures go to retail outlets,
7 shopping centers and the like outside of the EAA.
8 And yet another dimension of leakage would
9 be looking at the expenditures of the firms, be it
10 construction firms, mills and so on. The person of
11 their expenditures for inputs, and services and the
12 like, which go to recipients outside of the EAA, that
13 would be another component of the leakage.
14 Q Is there an increasing number of EAA
15 workers living outside of the EAA?
16 A In some of the interviews summarized in the
17 one exhibit, I was being told that there were a
18 substantial and perhaps increasing number of EAA workers
19 who lived outside of the EAA.
20 Q Is it true that the definition of leakage
21 depends upon where one draws the boundaries for the
22 study area; is that correct?
23 A Absolutely.
24 Q So, to the extent that EAA leakage involves
25 exchange with Palm Beach County and other adjacent
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1 counties, if one drew the study area around those
2 adjacent counties, instead, the leakage is not existent,
3 at least with respect to that?
4 A Yes. If the study area boundaries the EAA,
5 then the expenditures to other parts of Palm Beach
6 County, et cetera, are leakages. If you draw the
7 boundary to include all of Palm Beach County, then those
8 expenditures to the rest of Palm Beach County, which had
9 been leakages, are now no longer leakages because, by
10 definition, leakages are those expenditures that go
11 outside of the study area.
12 Q So, there is no internal leakage?
13 A So, the larger you draw the study area, the
14 less the leakage, other things equal.
15 Q Does the determination of a significant
16 amount of leakage suggest that the study area is more
17 properly drawn broader than it has been for a given
18 study?
19 A I believe that is not an unreasonable
20 statement. Another approach to this issue is that it is
21 not uncommon in impact studies to have multiple levels
22 of analysis. Perhaps local impact analysis, focusing on
23 an immediate area of communities which seem to bear the
24 brunt of the impacts. And then perhaps a more extensive
25 regional analysis, where the regional study area or
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1 analysis area is drawn more broadly to capture much of
2 the leakages that are identified as occurring from the
3 local study area.
4 Q Other than your input to RPC on the
5 distribution of STA construction and operation impacts
6 between local and non-local workers, did you provide any
7 other input to RPC on the broader topic of leakage in
8 their economic analysis?
9 A In one of these exhibits that we were
10 looking at yesterday, we talked about at least the
11 concept of doing the analysis at three different levels;
12 our local impact area, a regional analysis and the State
13 level impact. That would be the other significant input
14 that would come to mind.
15 Q Any others that come to mind?
16 A Not really, no.
17 Q Let me see, just for accuracy, if I can
18 find where you were discussing that. If you could take
19 a look through the exhibits.
20 A Actually, it looks like it is good old
21 Exhibit 2. And it is the page after the page that we
22 were just talking about.
23 Q All right.
24 A And it is the first full paragraph. It was
25 determined that three different levels of analysis would
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1 be appropriate.
2 Q I'm sorry if I asked you this question
3 yesterday. Excuse the repeat. Is RPC, to your
4 knowledge, analyzing impacts at those three different
5 levels; state, regional and local?
6 A I cannot say for sure.
7 Q In your opinion, is that the appropriate
8 methodology to use to address this leakage phenomenon
9 that inheres in the local impact assessment?
10 A Yes, I think so.
11 Q Referring back to the Federal principles
12 and guidelines that we had some reference to yesterday,
13 the principles and guidelines identified various
14 different levels of geographic focus for economic impact
15 assessment; is that correct?
16 A Yes.
17 Q What is meant by in NED?
18 A National Economic Development. There are
19 multiple accounts referred to in the principles and
20 guidelines. NED is the National Economic Development
21 account.
22 Q In your opinion, does addressing the
23 economic impact for the SWIM Plan at the State and EAA
24 level only satisfy the NED account aspect or requirement
25 of the principles and guidelines?
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1 A I don't know if I have enough information
2 to offer an opinion on that at this point.
3 Q In your literature, I believe it is in what
4 is marked as Exhibit 10, your threshold population level
5 article, you describe a phenomenon in the first
6 paragraph of increasing tendency for rural residents to
7 bypass nearby small towns for shopping centers, and
8 discount stores and larger trade centers?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Is there a trend in EAA residents bypassing
11 EAA cities to shop in larger trade centers?
12 A I have not had access to detailed retail
13 sales data by community to really give me a basis to
14 offer an opinion on that question.
15 Q Do you recall if that topic came up during
16 the interviews, of which you took notes, reflected in
17 Exhibit 3?
18 A My recollection was that one or more of the
19 people that I talked to discussed, for instance,
20 relatively limited retail, a relatively limited retail
21 sector in Belle Glade, and the impression that many
22 people went to the shopping centers of West Palm Beach
23 urban area for a substantial amount of their shopping.
24 Again, this was non-quantitative types of comments.
25 Q To your knowledge, are you aware of any
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1 factors that would distinguish the EAA from the North
2 Dakota areas that are referenced in the threshold
3 population article, in Exhibit 10, as far as this
4 phenomenon of bypassing local cities for remote larger
5 trade centers is concerned?
6 A Yes.
7 Q What would those be?
8 A Some factors that come to mind are factors
9 that distinguish the EAA study area from the North
10 Dakota and adjacent states that we referred to in the
11 article.
12 Q With respect to this type of leakage?
13 A With respect to this type of leakage.
14 Some things that come to mind, that I think
15 were mentioned in some of the interviews, was that on
16 the one hand, a certain portion of the EAA population
17 being seen as having limited mobility, hence, more
18 likely to purchase locally. And I believe these H2A
19 workers were mentioned in that regard. That they were a
20 major source of support for local businesses, because
21 they didn't in many cases have automobiles and so on, so
22 they couldn't go running off to West Palm Beach.
23 And on the other hand, also, discussion
24 about the fact of a significant portion of the EAA
25 people currently working in the EAA in the sugar
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1 industry, apparently, living outside of the EAA, in the
2 western suburbs. Wellington was a place that was
3 mentioned as a place of residence for a number of these
4 people.
5 And probably the general differences --
6 well, I'll just leave it there, as a couple of
7 differences.
8 Q Are H2A workers included in RPC's
9 employment and earning impact projections?
10 A That's a good question. I cannot say
11 without having a chance to study their analysis in its
12 entirety.
13 Q Should H2A workers be included in RPC's
14 employment impact projections?
15 A I don't think I would offer an opinion on
16 that without understanding the full context.
17 Q Would you have an opinion about whether H2A
18 workers should be included in RPC's earnings impact
19 projections?
20 A I don't think I would offer an opinion at
21 this time.
22 Q How about fiscal impact projections?
23 A Again, I don't feel that I have information
24 necessary to offer an opinion at this time.
25 Q Would that, also, be the case for
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1 demographic and social impact analysis that RPC might
2 be doing?
3 A Yes.
4 Q I had been asking you about inputs or
5 submittals that you might have made to RPC on the
6 broader issue of leakage, and you pointed me, again, to
7 Exhibit Number 2. Are there any other inputs that you
8 can think of?
9 A Not that I can think of right now.
10 Q Back to the documents.
11 A All right.
12 Q What is Exhibit Number 3? We haven't
13 gotten there yet, but we will get to that document.
14 Those are the handwritten interview notes and things?
15 A Yes.
16 Q Would you refer, please, to Exhibit Number
17 11?
18 A All right.
19 Q This exhibit deals with the memo to you
20 from Dr. Schubert concerning the proposed function and
21 your memo back concerning that function?
22 A Yes. Right.
23 Q It is correct, is it not, that population
24 decline begins immediately with the loss of a job, the
25 first job, by application of this function? Is that
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1 correct?
2 A That's the way it appears, yes.
3 Q In your previous models, did you make this
4 same assumption about an immediate population impact
5 from a very low level of employment impact?
6 A As I can recall, I have done a number of
7 these analyses using various types of models and
8 systems. In some of the analyses that we have done, I
9 think we have had a direct correspondence, as is shown
10 here. In others, as I recall, we allowed for a
11 fluctuation in, essentially, unemployment to occur;
12 which would probably mean that job loss would have to
13 reach a certain threshold, if you will, before migration
14 occurred.
15 Q Do you, usually, assume that there would be
16 some such threshold of unemployment before migration
17 occurs in the analyses that you have performed?
18 A We certainly have done it both ways. I
19 think one factor to be considered is what is the
20 baseline situation? I think both approaches have
21 considerable precedent in the literature.
22 Q With respect to the analyses that you have
23 done, as opposed to the literature on the topic, though,
24 have your analyses, usually, provided for some threshold
25 of unemployment before outmigration occurs?
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1 A As I say, we have done analyses and used
2 models that did both. We have used some models that had
3 unemployment threshold built in. We have used other
4 modeling systems that really did not have the
5 unemployment threshold. And population change,
6 essentially, was related to job change, from job one on.
7 Q Can an unemployment threshold of this sort
8 be provided for in an exponential function, or does that
9 require a quadratic function, or some other --
10 A I don't think I have an opinion on that,
11 without more information.
12 Q Which method would be most common in terms
13 of either providing an unemployment threshold, versus
14 assuming an immediate outmigration response, to a low
15 level of unemployment?
16 A I really believe an answer on that question
17 might require somebody to actually do a review of the
18 literature. And we have done some of those reviews in
19 the past, but that was probably several years ago, so I
20 don't think I have enough information to really offer an
21 opinion about what is most common.
22 Q How about in power generating plant models?
23 A Certainly, in some of the modeling that we
24 had done with regard to power plant construction, we did
25 a number of analyses, including some in North Dakota and
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1 some in Texas, using a particular type of modeling
2 system which has been sometimes referred to as the
3 T-A-M-S model, TAMS, or SEARS, S-E-A-R-S. And those
4 models incorporated an unemployment threshold.
5 So, probably quantitatively, in terms of
6 the total number of impact studies that I have been
7 involved in, the majority probably used that modeling
8 system. So, by definition, the majority would
9 incorporate an unemployment threshold.
10 Q Is there a model known by the acronym of
11 RED?
12 A Yes.
13 Q Does it incorporate an unemployment
14 threshold?
15 A Yes. The RED model was the basis for the
16 TAMS and the SEARS.
17 Q How about the REAP model, is that another
18 such model?
19 A That might, also, be viewed as a different
20 name for the RED model.
21 Q So, again, it would include an unemployment
22 threshold?
23 A Yes.
24 Q It sounds like these models are rather
25 incestuous.
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1 A Yes.
2 Q How do factors such as unemployment
3 insurance affect the decision whether to migrate from
4 the EAA in the face of unemployment?
5 A I don't think I have an opinion on that,
6 without more information.
7 Q Do you know whether the availability and
8 possible effect on outmigration of unemployment
9 insurance is considered in the RPC model?
10 A I don't know.
11 Q Was it discussed at all in model
12 construction, so far as you are aware?
13 A I was not party to discussions where that
14 was a major topic.
15 Q Did you make any account for unemployment
16 insurance in previous models or previous analyses that
17 you have done?
18 A To the best of my recollection, that was
19 not a major issue that we dealt with in those efforts.
20 Q How about other public assistance programs?
21 A Not really.
22 Q Would you consider unemployment
23 compensation to be a transfer payment, to the extent
24 that it is provided through EAA unemployed workers
25 living there?
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1 A I think it would be properly termed a
2 transfer payment.
3 Q Would funds transferred through such
4 transfer payments likely be spent within the EAA?
5 A At least to some extent, subject to the
6 same leakage phenomena that we discussed earlier.
7 Q Does outmigration occur symmetrically with
8 inmigration?
9 A I guess I'll ask you to repeat the
10 question, or tell me what symmetrically means.
11 Q Okay, I'll repeat it first. Does
12 outmigration occur symmetrically with inmigration?
13 A Then I guess I'll ask you to tell me what
14 symmetrically means in this context.
15 Q All right. Is there a common relationship
16 between outmigration and inmigration?
17 A I'm not sure if that question lends itself
18 well to a yes or no answer. I will say, yes. And then
19 say that to the extent of my understanding of the
20 literature, basically, literature on migration indicates
21 that outmigrants and inmigrants tended to share a
22 considerable number of characteristics, basically, with
23 migration being selective towards the certain age
24 groups, higher educational levels and the like.
25 The younger portion of the work force,
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1 typically, being more mobile. Generally, the more
2 highly-educated portion of the work force would be more
3 mobile.
4 Q I think I'm going in a different direction.
5 Let me rephrase the question.
6 Is there, usually, some creation of new
7 jobs associated with periods when there are losses of
8 existing jobs in a given area?
9 A I think I'll ask you to maybe clarify that
10 question a little bit.
11 Q That's okay. I'm not sure I will do that,
12 so we'll move on.
13 I am showing you what has been marked for
14 identification as Exhibit Number 12. Could you please
15 identify that, for the record?
16 A Yes, this is a handwritten memo to Eric,
17 referring to Eric Schubert, from Larry, myself.
18 Subject, data on sales per establishment. It is a
19 one-page memo, and then there are a collection of
20 attachments which, apparently, at least in someone's
21 view, bears some relationship to each other, I guess.
22 Q Do they bear any relationship to each
23 other, in your opinion?
24 A I think it was perhaps a collection of
25 notes and information that Mr. Schubert had put
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1 together, all relating in some way to data for
2 information relating to the EAA analysis.
3 Q Well, that is a relationship.
4 A Yes.
5 Q On the first page it has a sequence number
6 at the bottom, DLL 5167.
7 A Okay.
8 Q This is a memo from you to Dr. Schubert; is
9 that correct?
10 A Yes.
11 Q The first sentence says, "As we've
12 discussed, it would be helpful to have data on the
13 average sales per establishment for the major industry
14 aggregations represented by the RIMS 39 sector model
15 (see attached table)."
16 Was this the discussion of --
17 A Sales per establishment. Sales per
18 establishment that we related to a bit earlier today.
19 Q So, so far as you know, this was abandoned
20 from the standpoint of the methodology?
21 A I don't know for sure, but quite possibly.
22 Q But you had indicated that there were some
23 incompatibilities between the RIMS and such an approach?
24 A Potentially, yes.
25 Q On the second page, could you describe for
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1 me what these are, please?
2 A This is a list of the RIMS 39 sector, the
3 "RIMS 39 sector model", which is the broad industrial
4 categories included within RIMS. And many of those are
5 broken down for their more detailed model into -- well,
6 construction, for instance, here they have new
7 construction, maintenance and repair construction. That
8 other table that we looked at a little earlier today had
9 new construction broken down into a whole number of
10 categories. And, likewise, maintenance and repair
11 construction was broken down into a whole number of
12 categories.
13 Q I believe you indicated in your testimony
14 earlier that, to your knowledge, the particular rows,
15 not columns, but the particular industrial
16 classifications of the RIMS two multipliers that you
17 selected were the same that Hazen & Sawyer selected?
18 A That's my understanding.
19 Q The difference being Hendry County versus
20 Palm Beach County?
21 A Correct.
22 Q But, otherwise, they should be the same?
23 A That's my understanding, yes.
24 Q Would it be correct, then, that you did not
25 use these 39 sector multipliers?
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1 A Correct.
2 Q And why did you not?
3 A The reason that we did not use 39 sector
4 multipliers was because it was felt that the more
5 detailed breakdown would provide more accurate analysis.
6 Q The next page, DLL 5169, is this a work
7 table for what we looked at in another exhibit?
8 A Yes.
9 Q I guess that was Exhibit Number 2, this
10 information here?
11 A Yes. We would have to compare the numbers,
12 but that's what it should be, yes.
13 Q If you would, look at page DLL 5172, and
14 just take a look at that page.
15 A Maybe 62?
16 Q No. The DLL number. There are two sets of
17 numbers there.
18 A All right, 72, I've got it.
19 Q Thank you.
20 A My first comment is, these are not my
21 notes.
22 Q Could you identify for me whose notes they
23 are?
24 A Not with any degree of certainty. I could
25 speculate, but I don't know whose notes they are.
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1 Q Whose notes do you think they are?
2 A I would speculate that they might be Mr.
3 Schubert's notes.
4 Q There is a reference at the top. It says,
5 "Florida statistical" -- by abbreviation, does this look
6 like "Florida statistical abstract," and an arrow to the
7 right, and then, "Sales/firm ratio may be there to help
8 RPC to estimate loss."
9 Does that look right?
10 A Yes.
11 Q How would you understand that statement?
12 What does that mean to you?
13 A I think that probably that is Mr.
14 Schubert's understanding of, essentially, the comment
15 from the first page about maybe we could gather together
16 the information on average sales per firm. And one
17 source, the first source to look at, might be the
18 Florida Statistical Abstract.
19 Q Further down there is a reference, kind of
20 in the middle of the page. It looks like it says,
21 "Black woman," underlined, and then there is a number of
22 sentences.
23 A Yes.
24 Q Would you read the second line into the
25 record?
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1 A Okay. The second line, the one that begins
2 with "business"?
3 Q Yes.
4 A "Businesses already leaving the area,
5 (i.e., gas stations closings)."
6 Q Does this sentence have any significance,
7 in your view?
8 A Again, I think that was this gentleman's
9 notes from -- I was probably relating to him what I had
10 been told in an interview with a woman named Cartheda
11 Conchella, I believe is the pronunciation of the name.
12 She was introduced to me as an individual
13 who was to be described as a spokesperson or a person
14 quite knowledgeable about the local black community.
15 She had indicated that a high percentage, 80 percent was
16 probably her figure, of the black population in the EAA
17 or in the Belle Glade area, was, in her view, dependent
18 on agriculture.
19 She, also, mentioned that some businesses,
20 in her view, were already closing, leaving the area.
21 She mentioned, I believe, that more than one gasoline
22 station in Belle Glade had closed in some recent time
23 period.
24 So, essentially, I think this was Mr.
25 Schubert's notes as I had related to him what I thought
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1 were some salient observations from my interviews in the
2 EAA.
3 Q If that were true, namely, the phenomenon
4 of businesses currently leaving the area, that would be
5 the kind of thing that should be accounted for in the
6 baseline; is that correct?
7 A Yes. The baseline represents the current
8 and projected situation in the absence of proposed
9 actions. So, if businesses are already leaving the
10 area, that, by definition, should be reflected in a
11 baseline.
12 Q And if population were leaving the area, it
13 should be reflected in the baseline for population
14 impact analysis?
15 A It would seem so. Kind of by the
16 definition of baseline.
17 Q And that would, also, be true with respect
18 to property values; is that correct?
19 A Yes.
20 Q And local tax revenues?
21 A Yes.
22 Q And public facilities and services?
23 A What I am agreeing with is the proposition
24 that the baseline should reflect current conditions and
25 reasonably foreseeable future changes, in the absence of
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1 the proposed action.
2 Q And if those reasonably foreseeable future
3 changes included a continuation of a pattern of
4 outmigration of population, or lost businesses, or
5 diminishing property values, those should be reflected
6 in the baseline? That was my question.
7 A Yes, as a general concept.
8 Q Down at the bottom of this page, there is a
9 reference to the "Glades area" in quotes.
10 A Yes.
11 Q And then underneath that, it says, "As it's
12 called by locals"?
13 A Yes.
14 Q In the lexicon of the locals, is the Glades
15 area a synonym for the EAA?
16 A That was my impression, yes, that the
17 Glades area and the EAA were pretty much synonymous.
18 Q Do you know what the trend in school
19 enrollment is in the EAA?
20 A I haven't been asked to study the
21 statistics on that in any detail.
22 Q Would you look at DLL 5174 page number in
23 that Exhibit 12?
24 A All right.
25 Q Can you read what is on the top of this
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1 page, the underlined captioned?
2 A Only part of it. Again, these are not my
3 notes.
4 Q The page that we were talking about just
5 previously, 5172, did those look to be notes that the
6 author had created concerning your report to the author
7 about your interviews in the EAA?
8 A Yes. At least some of page 5172 would be.
9 Q And that would be the middle section on the
10 Okeechobee --
11 A Right the Okeechobee County contact, yes.
12 Q And the section at the bottom?
13 A Yes, et cetera.
14 Q Looking at this page, do you recognize the
15 context for these notes?
16 A Not particularly. As compared to 5172, I
17 don't think that this is a summary of something that I
18 was telling the individual.
19 Q The reference two lines down, it says L/SC
20 land," or assume it does. It is not very legible. What
21 would that mean, L/SC land, if that's what it says?
22 A I'm not sure.
23 Q Does anything on this page have any meaning
24 to you? Not particular words, obviously, but sentences?
25 A Not particularly. I would be speculating
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1 on what these notes really mean.
2 Q If you would, turn to page 5176.
3 A All right.
4 Q Could you identify this page for me?
5 A 5176, a memo to Ron Luke from Larry
6 Leistritz, dated July 12, 1993, regarding information
7 from CH2M Hill.
8 Q Do you recognize this document?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Could you tell me what this is?
11 A CH2M Hill, apparently, was involved in some
12 way in -- Dr. Luke had asked me to give him a summary of
13 information that he should seek to obtain from CH2M Hill
14 relative to, I believe, alternative STA scenarios. And
15 so this memo is my attempt to, basically, provide Ron
16 with a list of some of the information that would be
17 desirable to have from the CH2M Hill people.
18 Q Did you have any role in the collection of
19 any such data from CH2M Hill concerning alternatives?
20 A No. This memo, I guess, was the extent of
21 my involvement.
22 Q Would that be true, also, with respect to
23 other sources of information about alternative treatment
24 technologies, like other contractors?
25 A Yes.
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1 Q There is a reference at the top, the first
2 sentence of your memo, that says, "Pursuant to our
3 earlier discussions, it would be desirable to obtain,"
4 then it goes on.
5 Had you had discussions with RPC, before
6 this memo, about getting data from other sources
7 concerning alternative treatment technologies?
8 A I believe pretty much the essence of the
9 discussion had been Ron calling me and explaining that
10 CH2M Hill was involved somehow in designing or planning
11 of the STA alternatives and could I develop kind of a
12 summary of the kind of information that we should ask
13 them for.
14 Q In the first sentence, what did you mean by
15 "estimated previous land use"?
16 A The land that is taken for the STAs, what
17 crops were being grown, and in what proportions? What
18 acreages of sugar cane, vegetables, sod, whatever the
19 crops might be?
20 Q Do you know what alternative agency
21 actions, potential agency actions, by the Water
22 Management District RPC might be analyzing from the
23 standpoint of socioeconomic impact or cost benefit
24 analysis?
25 A No, I don't know.
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1 Q Have you had any involvement in any such
2 analysis?
3 A Not beyond the things that we really talked
4 about earlier in the deposition.
5 Q Which things?
6 A Selection of multipliers, review of
7 functions.
8 Q Have you had any interaction with RPC about
9 those things that we have discussed that were,
10 specifically, referenced to the analysis of
11 alternatives?
12 A No.
13 Q So, then, except for the extent to which
14 you have been involved in things with their analysis of
15 the SWIM Plan, and the extent to which those might be
16 applied to their analysis of alternatives, you had no
17 other involvement with their analysis of alternatives?
18 A Right.
19 Q Would it be fair to say that you haven't
20 formulated any opinions about any analysis that they
21 have done concerning alternatives to the SWIM Plan?
22 A Yes, that would be fair to say.
23 (Brief recess.)
24 (Deposition Exhibit 13 marked for
25 identification.)
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1 BY MR. SAXE:
2 Q Professor Leistritz, showing what you what
3 has been marked for identification as Exhibit Number 13,
4 would you please identify that, for the record?
5 A Okay. What we have is a handwritten -- it
6 looks like a format for a table to present certain data.
7 It shows years across the top, and then down the side it
8 shows population, total revenues, property taxes, other,
9 total expenditures and balance. And then it shows
10 change from baseline population, total revenues,
11 expenditures, balance, assumptions, property taxes,
12 assessed valuation and so on. So, apparently, someone's
13 outline for a potential table to present data.
14 Q Have you ever seen this document before?
15 A I don't believe I have. I couldn't swear
16 that I have not, but it is certainly not one that I
17 produced. It is not one that I was asked really to
18 review.
19 Q Do you recognize what it is from its
20 contents or context?
21 A From its content or context, I would
22 speculate that it is an outline of a format for
23 presenting some of what we would refer to as the fiscal
24 analysis, because they talk about tax revenues, and
25 expenditures and balance. So, that would be my
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1 speculation. It is sort of an initial attempt to
2 specify a format for reporting some of the fiscal
3 analysis results.
4 Q Do you know whether RPC is using an
5 inflation rate in any of its economic or fiscal
6 variables?
7 A I don't know.
8 Q Would it be correct that you don't know
9 whether this outline reflects methodology that is being
10 used by RPC or not?
11 A That would be correct. I don't know what
12 this is. If this is what is being used now or not.
13 MR. SAXE: Would you mark that, please?
14 (Deposition Exhibit 14 marked for
15 identification.)
16 BY MR. SAXE:
17 Q Professor Leistritz, handing you what has
18 been marked for identification as Exhibit Number 14,
19 would you just identify that document? Just kind of, in
20 terms of the title, just something sufficient to
21 identify it?
22 A It is a memo from Ann to Eric. Subject,
23 sugar cane agricultural property tax analysis, methods
24 and assumptions, date July 28, 1993.
25 Q And have you seen this document before?
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1 A Like the previous document, I can't say for
2 sure. I did not produce it. I was not asked to provide
3 a review of it. It's possible that I was provided a
4 copy for informational purposes. I can't say for sure.
5 Q Do you recognize what the purpose of this
6 document might be?
7 A It appears to be Ann, which is Ann Orzech,
8 Ann's outline of methodology, as she says, and
9 assumptions for a portion of the fiscal impact analysis,
10 which would be the sugar cane agricultural property tax
11 component.
12 Q In the second paragraph, there is a
13 sentence a little more than halfway down, that starts on
14 the right side. It says, "In estimating net income,
15 drainage district assessments are counted, but real
16 estate taxes, and Federal and State taxes are not."
17 Do you know what the drainage district
18 assessments that are referred to in this sentence are?
19 A No, I don't. No.
20 Q Are you familiar with an average drainage
21 district assessment of $17.58, by any chance?
22 A I really have not been asked to get into
23 the details of the fiscal impact analysis, and in
24 particular the agricultural land analysis. That was not
25 part of my responsibilities, so I am really not
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1 familiar.
2 Q I won't belabor it. Just let me ask you
3 one other question. The fourth paragraph up from the
4 bottom, it is a one-sentence paragraph, would you read
5 that into the record for me, please?
6 A Okay. The one that begins, "The average
7 net income"?
8 Q No. It actually begins, "If the average
9 income." I'm sorry, it is the next page.
10 A "If the average" -- okay.
11 Q It is page DLL 5182.
12 A Reading into the record: "If the average
13 income per acre for a given year is negative for land in
14 production, the valuation for tax purposes equals zero."
15 Q As far as land valuation in the EAA is
16 concerned, do you concur with this assertion?
17 A Again, really, land valuation for tax
18 purposes is not one of the aspects that I have been
19 asked to form opinions about.
20 Q Never mind.
21 MR. SAXE: If you would mark this, please.
22 (Deposition Exhibit 15 marked for
23 identification.)
24 BY MR. SAXE:
25 Q Professor Leistritz, showing you what has
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1 been marked for identification as Exhibit Number 15,
2 could you just identify this, briefly, for the record
3 for me?
4 A Okay. A handwritten memo to Eric from Ann,
5 regarding State, corporate, and sales and PBC sales tax
6 analysis. PBC is Palm Beach County, I would speculate.
7 Date July 28, 1993.
8 Q Have you seen this document before?
9 A I don't believe so.
10 Q Do you recognize the nature of the document
11 from its contents?
12 A The nature of the document seems to be that
13 Ann is specifying for Eric some of the dimensions,
14 methodology procedures, to be used in some portions of
15 the fiscal impact analysis. She has formulas and this
16 sort of thing, data sources, contact.
17 Again, I really had no hand in producing
18 the document. I was not asked to review it, and this is
19 really --
20 Q Do you know whether this reflects the
21 methodology that is being used by RPC to tax their
22 fiscal analysis?
23 A I don't know.
24 Q Did you have input, earlier on in the
25 history of this case, in the formulation of Ann's basic
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1 methodology for these purposes?
2 A Only in a very general context.
3 Q How about with respect to these formulas?
4 A Specific formulas, no.
5 MR. SAXE: Would you mark this, please?
6 (Deposition Exhibit 16 marked for
7 identification.)
8 BY MR. SAXE:
9 Q Professor Leistritz, showing you what has
10 been marked for identification as Exhibit Number 16,
11 would you, just briefly, identify this for the record
12 for me?
13 A Okay. Exhibit 16 is handwritten notes.
14 There is a date up in the corner. It looks like
15 7-30-93, which would be the 30th of July, if that's the
16 case.
17 And what these notes seem to represent are
18 notes taken by someone while reviewing some reports,
19 articles, reviewing the literature relative to,
20 basically, economic decline.
21 Q These are not your notes, I take it?
22 A No, they're not my notes.
23 Q Do you have any understanding of whose
24 notes these are?
25 A It would be pure speculation.
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1 Q Based on your knowledge of the personnel
2 associated with the project for RPC and Dr. Luke, who
3 might have made such notes?
4 A Possibly Mr. Schubert, since he was working
5 actively on the project at that time.
6 Q I notice down at the bottom of this first
7 page there is a reference to the Schefferville study
8 about the winding down in the Quebec mining town.
9 A Yes.
10 Q That was referenced in another document
11 that, also, included a reference to your article?
12 A Yes.
13 Q Do you recognize these other articles or
14 any of them?
15 A Yes. Most of them are, generally, familiar
16 to me. They represent some reasonably well-known
17 studies of plant closings, economic decline and the
18 like, single-industry towns. Some of them, but not all,
19 are studies that I recall having read and reviewed in
20 the past years in other contexts.
21 Q If you will, turn to page DLL 5191. I
22 think it is the third page of this exhibit.
23 A There are two sets of numbers, so that
24 would be the third page, okay.
25 Q The reference at the top, I think it says
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1 Number 58, and then it gives what looks like the title
2 of a publication and an author?
3 A Yes.
4 Q Would you read that for me, please, into
5 the record?
6 A Number 58. The Community Impact of
7 Military Installations is the title, and then there is
8 an author Darwin W., and I'll spell the last name,
9 D-A-I-C-O-F-F, it appears to be.
10 Q Are you familiar with this article?
11 A In a general context. I believe I remember
12 reviewing it some years ago.
13 Q There is a quotation, it is like the second
14 paragraph on this page. It says page 150, "Any impact
15 (of a base closure) will, also, be magnified if the
16 community is distant from a large metropolitan area."
17 In your opinion, is that a true assertion?
18 A One perhaps would like to know a little
19 more of the context, but certainly that does not seem an
20 unreasonable statement or generalization.
21 Q As a general principle, other things being
22 equal, will economic impacts of unemployment resulting
23 from some sort of decline in a community be magnified if
24 that community is distant from a large metropolitan
25 area?
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1 A I would say, yes. I would agree with that
2 statement in the context that if the closure, for
3 instance, occurs in a setting that is adjacent to a
4 large metropolitan area, workers are, typically, seen as
5 having more opportunities to find other employment
6 without physically relocating. That sort of thing. So,
7 to that extent, I agree with that, yes.
8 Q How do you quantify the requisite distance
9 between the community, the affected community, and the
10 large metropolitan area for purposes of determining
11 whether it is distant or not?
12 A Well, that is a good question. My sense of
13 how people who address these issues might commonly look
14 at that would be in terms of commuting time or travel
15 time.
16 Again, going back to the issue of can
17 workers be expected to find alternative employment
18 opportunities within the commuting distance, or
19 conversely, are large numbers likely to have to consider
20 physical relocation, residential change, in order to
21 find alternative employment?
22 Q Would it be the same in different parts of
23 the country?
24 A It might well be different to the extent
25 that workers are more or less willing or able to commute
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1 long distances to employment. Certainly, the miles that
2 might be regarded as distant, versus proximate, might be
3 different in different parts of the country, depending
4 on travel conditions, road conditions. That sort of
5 thing.
6 Q Where there would be good quality roads and
7 infrastructure, would you expect that the dividing line
8 between distant and proximate might be a longer or
9 greater distance than where roads were bad?
10 A My sense of kind of the opinion in this
11 area would be that, yes, people probably are willing to
12 commute longer distances in situations where roads are
13 good. That perhaps travel time might be a better
14 indicator than actual miles.
15 Q Looking at the first page of this document,
16 it looks like your name is written up in the top left
17 corner. It says Leistritz 75.
18 A Seventy-five, yes, which surprises me a
19 little. Go ahead.
20 Q Do you know what this would object a
21 reference to? Why your name would be written?
22 A Yes. Again, it would be speculation, but I
23 believe I had provided RPC with a number of documents,
24 including a booklet, with an annotated bibliography,
25 that was devoted to "economic decline and community
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1 revitalization."
2 I would speculate, then, that the Leistritz
3 75 might suggest that this first document might be Item
4 Number 75 from our bibliography, our book. And a number
5 of these items probably were referenced in our booklet
6 bibliography. So, whoever prepared these notes was sort
7 of keeping track of where had they found this reference.
8 Q So, then, do you recall whether this
9 article was listed on that bibliography, Plant Closings
10 and Economic Dislocation, by Gordus, Jarley and Ferman?
11 A I would say, obviously, that we can get a
12 copy of the bibliography and take a look, but it is my
13 recollection that plant closings would be one of the
14 works that we would have cited in that bibliography. It
15 sounds very familiar.
16 Q If you turn to the third page, again, up at
17 the top, it says number -- there is a pound sign, #58,
18 it looks like, and then LEIS.
19 A That sounds like another from our
20 bibliography.
21 Q And the title article is The Community
22 Impact of Military Installations, by Darwin W. Daicoff.
23 That is what you read into the record earlier?
24 A Yes.
25 Q Does this, also, look like one that might
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1 have been referenced on this bibliography?
2 A Yes, I would think so.
3 Q Do you see any others in this document that
4 have similar annotations referencing, perhaps, your
5 provided bibliography?
6 A I don't see other notes of that nature.
7 Q Did you compile the bibliography?
8 A Yes.
9 Q Did you, in compiling the bibliography,
10 attempt to collect all articles or publications that
11 related to the general subject matter of a particular
12 general subject matter?
13 A We did not attempt to collect. We did not
14 attempt to include all articles, reports, et cetera,
15 related to the general subject matter. We tried to
16 include what, in our view, were the most relevant works
17 within a particular time frame that related to the
18 subject matter.
19 Q And what was the subject matter, again?
20 A The subject matter of that particular
21 effort -- Economic Decline in Community Revitalization,
22 I believe, is the title of it. And it pretty well
23 summarizes the scope.
24 Q And so if I understand you correctly, your
25 bibliography identified articles that, in your opinion,
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1 were most relevant to economic decline in community
2 revitalization?
3 A Yes.
4 Q Was that based on some familiarity with the
5 various articles that were in the bibliography?
6 A Yes.
7 Q What is meant by revitalization in the
8 context that it was being used for your bibliography?
9 A In that context, we were including works
10 relating to community development, economic development,
11 economic diversification. Efforts that might, for
12 instance, aim at generating new employment opportunities
13 to, in some context, replace those that might have been
14 lost in an economic decline or facility closure
15 situation.
16 Q Did the selection of articles for this
17 bibliography for inclusion in this bibliography reflect
18 any opinion on your part that they were particularly
19 relevant to the EAA?
20 A No.
21 Q Or just to the subject matter?
22 A To the general subject matter.
23 MR. SAXE: Would you mark this, please?
24 (Deposition Exhibit 17 marked for
25 identification.)
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1 BY MR. SAXE:
2 Q Professor Leistritz, handing you what has
3 been marked for identification as Exhibit Number 17,
4 would you, just briefly, identify that document for the
5 record?
6 A This document, Exhibit Number 17, is an
7 article. The title is The Agricultural Crisis as it
8 Affects Rural Communities. The author is Gerald A.
9 Doeksen. That is D-O-E-K-S-E-N. This article was
10 published in the Journal of the Community Development
11 Society, Volume 18, Number 1. It was published in 1987.
12 Q Have you seen this document before?
13 A Yes.
14 Q What is the nature of this article?
15 A The nature of the article is the author's,
16 basically, commentary and analysis of the effects of
17 what he terms the agricultural crisis in the Great
18 Plains region on rural communities that serve, in large
19 measure, as agricultural trade centers.
20 Q Does it pertain to modeling of demographic
21 impacts?
22 A Yes. The author presents some results from
23 a community simulation model. My recollection is that,
24 yes, some of the outputs from his analysis or some of
25 the contents of his analysis relate to demographic
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1 impacts.
2 Q Have you relied on this article to any
3 extent in formulating your opinions in this case?
4 A I am familiar with the article. I have
5 read it, along with other articles, dealing with similar
6 topics. So, I guess it would be appropriate to say that
7 would be one of the pieces of literature that I have
8 relied on to some extent in formulating opinions in the
9 case.
10 Q The analysis that is reflected in this
11 article, is it sound analysis, in your opinion?
12 A In my opinion, yes.
13 Q Do you know whether the RPC model for
14 demographic impact analysis is drawn from the Doeksen
15 model?
16 A No, I don't know.
17 Q On page 82 of the article --
18 A Yes.
19 Q -- which is DLL 5678, there is a sentence
20 down at the bottom, the second sentence from the bottom.
21 It is in the section titled Community Simulation Model
22 Results. It says, "It was assumed that unemployment
23 would be allowed to increase to 10 percent, and that
24 outmigration would begin to occur at that point."
25 A Yes.
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1 Q Is this the unemployment threshold that we
2 were discussing earlier?
3 A It seems to be that kind of a concept, yes.
4 Q Do you know whether the Doeksen model that
5 is at issue here used an exponential function for
6 determining population?
7 A I don't know. I have not spent time
8 analyzing the detailed documentation of the model to be
9 able to talk about whether they had an exponential
10 function.
11 Q Are you familiar with the Doeksen model?
12 A In general terms, from reading articles
13 like this one. So, I am familiar, generally, with the
14 type of variables that are projected. I don't feel
15 familiar with it in the context of the detail that would
16 come from reviewing a detailed technical documentation,
17 the full coefficients and the like.
18 Q If you look, again, on the same page 82,
19 the first full paragraph, it is actually a little bit
20 down from the top of the page, the first sentence says,
21 "The community simulation model was originally developed
22 in Oklahoma, and has been used extensively by community
23 development professionals in the southwest." And there
24 is parenthetical cite to Woods and Doeksen in 1984.
25 Would you concur with that representation?
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1 A Yes. I would not dispute that.
2 Q In the next sentence, it says, "The model
3 is designed to measure how a change in the economic base
4 of a community will affect the entire community."
5 A Yes.
6 Q Would such a model be applicable to
7 measuring community impacts in the EAA?
8 A It seems that the objective of this
9 Oklahoma model is very similar to the objective of the
10 local impact analysis in the EAA.
11 Q Would you refer to what we marked earlier
12 as deposition exhibit -- I'll tell you what. Off the
13 record.
14 (Brief luncheon recess.)
15 MR. SAXE: Back on the record.
16 BY MR. SAXE:
17 Q Professor Leistritz, if you would, refer to
18 Exhibit Number 3.
19 A Yes.
20 Q You identified this earlier, I believe, on
21 the record. Am I correct that this document is a
22 composite, but it consists mainly of your handwritten
23 notes of your interviews and meetings in the EAA?
24 A Yes.
25 Q If you would turn to the third page, it has
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1 got Number 5599 at the bottom.
2 A 5599.
3 Q Would you identify this for me, please?
4 A Okay. This is really a list of
5 appointments for economic interviews. It is a memo to
6 me from Barbara Miedema, who is an employee of the Sugar
7 Co-op. And it is a synopsis of appointments that she
8 had scheduled for me, appointments for interviews and
9 meetings.
10 Q Had you requested that she arrange these
11 interviews?
12 A Yes.
13 Q And what was the purpose for requesting the
14 interviews?
15 A Well, basically, to develop a better
16 understanding of local economic and demographic
17 conditions.
18 Q You have referred to these interviews a
19 number of times in your deposition. Would it be correct
20 to say that the information that you derived in these
21 interviews has formed some part of the basis for your
22 opinions in this case?
23 A Yes.
24 Q Did all of these meetings occur?
25 A We, of course, have some notes, I think,
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1 for all of the ones that occurred. And it is my
2 recollection that, yes, I believe all of the ones listed
3 here did occur.
4 Q Did Dr. Schubert accompany you on any of
5 these?
6 A No.
7 Q Did anybody else accompany you?
8 A Barbara Miedema was with me at some of
9 these meetings, but not all of them.
10 Q Was this visit scheduled in conjunction
11 with an annual meeting of the American Agricultural
12 Economics Association in Orlando in 1993?
13 A No.
14 Q Where did you stay during this interview
15 period?
16 A I stayed in West Palm Beach. I believe it
17 was the Radisson Hotel there.
18 Q Are there any motels or hotels in the EAA?
19 A Within the EAA, yes, certainly, I believe
20 there are one or more in Belle Glade. I, specifically,
21 saw one or more in Clewiston.
22 Q Do you know whether people visiting the
23 EAA, typically, stay in Palm Beach or outside of the
24 EAA?
25 A I don't know.
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1 Q Did you consider staying at the hotel or
2 motel within the EAA when you visited?
3 A As I recall, a major factor was that I was
4 going to be getting off an airplane, what to me seemed
5 very late at night, so I was interested in a motel that
6 would be close to the airport.
7 Q Would you turn to DLL 5601?
8 A 5601, yes.
9 Q Would you describe this for me, please?
10 What this document is?
11 A These are brief, albeit cryptic, notes from
12 a meeting. Really, the first of my meetings and
13 interviews. And these were, basically, local government
14 representatives, city managers or representatives of
15 their office.
16 Q So, Sue Teats, is that the --
17 A Is with the City Manager's office in Belle
18 Glade, as I recall.
19 Q And Lester Baird, and Lomax Hanelle and
20 another person named Ken are, also, with the City
21 Manager's office?
22 A With some of the different communities in
23 the EAA.
24 Q Which communities were represented at the
25 meeting?
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1 A I would have to go back. I think many of
2 these people gave me their cards. But Belle Glade,
3 Clewiston, I believe South Bay. I'm not sure about
4 other communities.
5 Q There is a comment, the second line down
6 under that, kind of in the middle of the page. It says,
7 "South Bay-Labor Camp shutdown-" and then there is
8 something unintelligible.
9 A Yes.
10 Q What does that note reflect?
11 A One of people that I was meeting with
12 mentioned a labor camp which had been operated, I
13 believe, for the H2A workers near the community of South
14 Bay, apparently, had been closed because of fewer
15 workers being involved in the harvest, as I understood
16 it.
17 Q Have H2A workers been replaced by
18 mechanized harvesting in the sugar industry in the EAA?
19 A That is what I was led to believe, yes.
20 Q The next comment, "Mechanized sugar harvest
21 has hurt the communities - 10,000 to 2,000."
22 What did that reflect?
23 A The comment was that as the sugar harvest
24 had been mechanized, this had led to a substantial
25 reduction in the seasonal harvest workers. One of the
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1 individuals that was there was suggesting that the
2 number of seasonal harvest workers had dropped from
3 10,000 to the neighborhood of 2,000. And that this
4 reduction in the numbers of seasonal harvest workers,
5 hence, seasonal residents in the area, had been
6 reflected in reduced sales for some of the local
7 businesses.
8 Q Are H2A workers seasonal harvest workers?
9 A That is my understanding.
10 Q Are migrant workers and seasonal harvest
11 workers the same thing?
12 A It seems to me that those terms might be
13 used synonymously, at least by some people, yes.
14 Q The numbers of 10,000 to 2,000, is that
15 just a change in H2A workers, or are there other
16 seasonal harvest workers included in that category?
17 A I could only speculate as to what this
18 individual was including within the estimate.
19 Q What did you understand him to be referring
20 to, or her?
21 A I guess I understood that to probably be
22 the total seasonal harvest work force.
23 Q Do you have an opinion about what the
24 change in total seasonal harvest work force has been in
25 the EAA?
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1 A Not beyond the various comments in the
2 interviews that there had been a substantial reduction.
3 Q Do you know why there was a replacement of
4 seasonal harvest workers by mechanization?
5 A No.
6 Q Do you know whether there is a difference
7 in the cost of hand versus mechanical harvesting?
8 A I was led to understand, from some of the
9 discussions reflected here, that some of the companies,
10 including the Co-op, felt that mechanized harvesting was
11 more advantageous, as they saw it; which I interpreted
12 to mean that they thought the overall costs were less
13 with mechanized harvesting.
14 Q Did they indicate any other reasons why
15 they felt it was advantageous, besides a reduction in
16 overall costs?
17 A Not that I recall in so many words.
18 Q Is the change from hand harvesting to
19 mechanized harvesting reflected in any way in the RPC
20 analysis?
21 A I don't know to what extent that has been
22 incorporated in their analysis.
23 Q Do you know whether there is any continuing
24 trend in replacement of seasonal harvest workers by
25 mechanization?
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1 A Not beyond the information reflected in the
2 interviews here.
3 Q Before I move on, do you know whether RPC
4 has analyzed socioeconomic impacts from the displacement
5 of seasonal harvest workers by mechanization?
6 A No, I don't.
7 Q Do you know whether any provision is made
8 for the replacement of seasonal harvest workers by
9 mechanization in RPC's baseline analysis?
10 A No, I don't know.
11 Q In your opinion, is there some way that the
12 replacement of seasonal harvest workers by mechanization
13 should be reflected in a baseline analysis of the
14 socioeconomic impacts of the SWIM Plan in the EAA?
15 A I don't think I have been asked to form an
16 opinion on that issue, specifically.
17 Q I think you indicated earlier that,
18 generally, a change in employment, for instance, that
19 was occurring independently of the effects of a proposed
20 action, should be reflected in a baseline; is that
21 correct?
22 A Yes. That's my understanding of general
23 practice, yes.
24 Q Do you have an opinion whether there is any
25 such change in employment involving this mechanization
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1 replacement that is occurring in the EAA, based on your
2 interviews and whatever other sources of information
3 that you have?
4 A I would repeat that I was not asked to,
5 essentially, develop an opinion or recommendation in
6 this area. Some of the interviews would indicate that
7 there had been substantial replacement of harvest labor
8 through mechanization in the recent past. And I believe
9 that some of the interviewees, also, offered their views
10 about what was likely to happen in the future. But I
11 was not asked to, basically, develop a recommendation of
12 how harvest mechanization should be incorporated in the
13 analysis.
14 Q The representations of interviewed people
15 that are reflected in your interview notes in this
16 exhibit, is that properly characterized as anecdotal
17 information?
18 A I think that is a term that is commonly
19 used, yes.
20 Q Could you reasonably draw a conclusion
21 about a baseline change in employment associated with
22 the replacement of seasonal harvest workers through
23 mechanization from the kind of anecdotal information
24 that you were gathering in the EAA?
25 A I would, certainly, think that the kind of
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1 information that we were gathering would be one of the
2 important sources of information for formulating
3 opinions about likely baseline trends or changes.
4 Q The next sentence says, "Economic econ
5 dev." Excuse me, I assume that is economic development.
6 And then "dash prisons are a possibility"?
7 A Yes.
8 Q And then it goes on.
9 A Yes. If you are asking for an
10 interpretation of what cryptic notes mean --
11 Q Yes, please.
12 A -- my question had been what economic
13 development potentials are the communities in EAA
14 exploring? What do they see as any salient economic
15 development possibilities?
16 The response to the question was that
17 prisons seem to be one possible form of economic
18 development that has been discussed in the area, but
19 that prisons were not seen as being highly popular with
20 the local residents.
21 Reference was made to a proposal, some sort
22 of recent proposal, to perhaps convert the South Bay
23 Labor Camp, which I took to be the one that had been
24 referred to earlier as having been shut down not too
25 long before, to convert that labor camp to a prison.
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1 Q In your opinion, where there were any
2 existing facility that could be converted to some other
3 use, if that were true of the South Bay Labor Camp, is
4 that an efficient way to mitigate economic impacts of
5 industrial change or economic change in an area?
6 A I guess I really wasn't asked to follow up,
7 to form an opinion on that subject.
8 Q Are you familiar with the concept of value
9 added?
10 A Yes, somewhat.
11 Q Is there any applicability of the value
12 added concept in mitigating economic impacts in the EAA?
13 A As I recall, in at least one of the
14 interviews, there was some mention of the possibility of
15 vegetable processing, perhaps as a possible economic
16 development option. Whereas the EAA, apparently, has
17 soils suitable to the production of certain types of
18 vegetables.
19 The feeling was, well, if, in fact,
20 vegetable processing facilities could be developed in
21 the EAA, that would be, essentially, consistent with the
22 value added concept, to do more of the processing within
23 the area, rather than ship the unprocessed products out
24 of the area, possibly to be processed somewhere else.
25 Q In your opinion, is vegetable processing
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1 expansion in the EAA a realistic prospect?
2 A Again, I was not instructed to really
3 follow up to form an opinion about the feasibility of
4 expanded vegetable processing.
5 Q Well, based on what you learned in your
6 interviews, and what you know about the EAA from your
7 analysis of secondary data and other things, would you
8 think that there might be some significant prospect for
9 expansion in the vegetable processing activity in the
10 EAA?
11 A Again, based on the very limited
12 information that I obtained through this process,
13 certain kinds of vegetables, clearly, can be grown in
14 that region. The climate and the soils make it possible
15 to grow these things, so that, certainly, expanded
16 vegetable processing would seem technically possible.
17 On the other hand, as I say, I was not
18 asked to really gather the information necessary to
19 assess, if you will, the economic feasibility or the
20 likelihood of significant expansion in vegetable
21 production and processing.
22 Q Would integration into vegetable processing
23 or integration with vegetable processing be a means of
24 keeping more vegetable acreage in production in times of
25 economic stress?
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1 A Again, I really wasn't asked to gather the
2 information to formulate an opinion on that question.
3 Q As a general matter?
4 A As a general matter, if, for instance,
5 vegetable processing facilities were developed within
6 the region, thus creating additional processing jobs,
7 this, on a hypothetical basis, could be a mitigating
8 measure. That is, a source of additional jobs, to some
9 extent, to offset job losses that might be hypothesized
10 under different alternatives.
11 Q Might there be any other crop processing
12 options for EAA crops that are being exploited right
13 now?
14 A I don't recall that coming up as a salient
15 point in the interviews that I did down there. Again,
16 there may have been mention of some other possibility.
17 I don't remember that coming out as either a salient
18 point or a point mentioned by several people, I guess.
19 Q Do you know whether all of the raw sugar
20 that is milled in the EAA is refined in the EAA?
21 A It is my understanding that a substantial
22 percentage would not be refined in the EAA.
23 Q Would the expansion of the sugar refining
24 process or capability in the EAA be one example of a
25 possible value added mitigation to the existing economic
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1 impacts?
2 A Yes. Expansion of sugar refining within
3 the EAA would fall under the definition of additional
4 value added within the region. Again, I was not asked
5 to gather any information to really form an opinion
6 about the economic feasibility or likelihood of that
7 sort of activity.
8 Q There are some references at the bottom of
9 this page. It looks like it says, "Don't forget: 1,
10 agri-business, 2, sugar industry services and
11 contributions, and then 3," nothing. Or, rather, 3 and
12 there is nothing after the Number 3.
13 A Yes. This was, again, a comment made by
14 one of these people, to which there seemed to be general
15 concurrence. One of their major points had been that
16 agriculture is really the economic base of the Glades
17 area. Agriculture is the economic cornerstone.
18 The point of this note is that they were
19 telling me, don't forget in your analysis the role of
20 agri-business, the businesses that provide inputs into
21 the agriculture sector, or handle, or process the
22 products. Also, don't forget the services and
23 contributions that the sugar industry makes.
24 And then some specific examples were given
25 about contributions, both monetary contributions to the
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1 communities and, also, contributions in kind through,
2 for instance, as I understood it, loans of equipment and
3 so on.
4 Again, these were anecdotes that were very
5 familiar to the people around the table. I did not take
6 down detailed notes about each example that they pointed
7 out.
8 Q As far as the agri-business that you
9 mentioned here, that is the kind of economic impacts
10 that would be captured in induced economic impacts; is
11 that correct?
12 A Indirect and induced.
13 Q Excuse me, indirect economic impacts?
14 A Primarily, indirect, yes.
15 Q How about the concern about sugar industry
16 services and contributions, are those quantified in
17 RPC's economic impact analysis somehow?
18 A I don't know.
19 Q Do you have an opinion about whether they
20 should be?
21 A I was not asked to really gather the
22 information to form the basis for an opinion of whether
23 those should be incorporated in some way explicitly or
24 how.
25 Q Do you know what services are provided by
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1 the sugar industry in the EAA, services and
2 contributions?
3 A Again, examples were given by the folks in
4 this meeting. I was not asked to really make any sort
5 of a compilation or exhaustive inventory.
6 Q Going back to the point just a couple of
7 minutes ago about value added integration, would changes
8 involving value added integration in veggies, in
9 vegetables, or sugar, or other crops give farmers a more
10 optimistic outlook about future prospects for returns to
11 land?
12 A I think I'll ask you to repeat the
13 question.
14 Q Would changes involving value added
15 integration in vegetables, sugar or other crops in the
16 EAA tend to give farmers a more optimistic outlook about
17 prospects for future returns to land?
18 A If the hypothesized integration alternative
19 crops and the like gave a promise of offering producers
20 a higher return per acre than existing crop and
21 alternatives, that might give them a more optimistic
22 outlook.
23 Q Going back to the conversations about sugar
24 industry services and contributions, were those comments
25 made by the city managers' office representatives at the
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1 meeting?
2 A Yes.
3 Q Were there other people at the meeting
4 besides people that worked for the city managers'
5 offices?
6 A Myself, Barbara Miedema and the other
7 people there were, basically, representing the city
8 government, City Manager and the like.
9 Q There was nobody there from the sugar
10 industry, other than Barbara?
11 A Right.
12 Q The next page, if you would, 5602. The
13 reference up top to private schools, how does private
14 schools fit into RPC's analysis?
15 A I don't know how, if at all, they're
16 explicitly incorporating the private schools.
17 Q Do you know what is happening to schools,
18 generally, in the EAA?
19 A It was pointed out to me by people at this
20 meeting that private schools are an important phenomena
21 within the EAA. That there are two private schools, as
22 they explained it to me, two of these private schools in
23 Belle Glade, and these schools operate Grades K through
24 12.
25 Q That is the extent of your information
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1 about the schools and what has been happening to the
2 schools?
3 A Yes. I was not asked to compile
4 information about school enrollment trends, school
5 finance and the like.
6 Q What is the significance of these private
7 schools, from the standpoint of impact analysis?
8 A A significance of the private schools from
9 the standpoint of impact analysis, I guess, would be
10 that they would probably divert -- in the study area,
11 apparently, a substantial number of school age children
12 are attending private schools, rather than the public
13 schools. So, this reduces enrollment in the public
14 schools, I guess, compared to a situation of no private
15 schools.
16 Q And the reduced enrollment in public
17 schools, how would that express itself in terms of
18 overall economic impact, if at all?
19 A I haven't really been asked to form an
20 opinion in that area.
21 Q Do you know who attends the private
22 schools?
23 A It was indicated to me that probably the
24 private school enrollment would be predominantly
25 children from families with higher than average income.
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1 Q It wouldn't be cane cutters, I take it?
2 A It was my understanding that probably cane
3 cutters' children would probably be enrolled in the
4 public schools, rather than the private schools.
5 Q How about other migrant workers or migrant
6 workers' children?
7 A Again, what I was understanding from the
8 discussions was that migrant worker children, et cetera,
9 would probably be in the public schools, not in the
10 private schools.
11 Q The next sentence says, "Expanded rice
12 production." Is that what it says?
13 A Yes.
14 Q Is rice acreage increasing in the EAA?
15 A This is what was being indicated by people
16 in this meeting. They thought that there had been an
17 expansion in rice production and rice acreage. And as I
18 recall, there was some discussion of how that kind of
19 related to some of the overall management practices and
20 so on.
21 Q Do you have an opinion about whether there
22 is any trend in acreage, rice acreage, in the EAA?
23 A I haven't been asked to form an opinion on
24 that.
25 Q Did you develop any understanding of the
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1 reasons for this expanded rice production that was
2 reported by these interviewees?
3 A Yes. My understanding was that the primary
4 reason for the expanded rice production was that this
5 tied in with some of the best management practices that
6 the sugar cane industry has been implementing.
7 Q Do you know whether RPC, in their analysis,
8 makes provision for rice production?
9 A My general understanding is their analysis
10 would incorporate, would make provision, for rice
11 production. I am, however, not familiar with any of the
12 detail of how this is done.
13 Q Do you know what kinds of information the
14 city managers' representatives that reported the
15 expanded rice production in this meeting were relying
16 on?
17 A The short answer would be, no, I don't know
18 what kind of information they were relying on. And I
19 guess my speculation was that they were relying on what
20 they had heard from their friends, their neighbors,
21 their constituents, relative to trends and changes in
22 what they were pointing out as the area's primary
23 industry.
24 Q Would you have expected that the reports of
25 expanded rice production and in their respective areas
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1 by representatives of city managers' offices would be
2 fairly reliable with respect to that fact?
3 A I guess, in general, I would say that,
4 usually, one likes to compare the information from
5 different sources. I would not, generally, look at city
6 managers representatives as the most authoritative
7 sources as to trends in agriculture. At the same time,
8 since they were offering observations of what they
9 thought or what seemed to them some salient trends or
10 changes, I tried to take note of what they were telling
11 me.
12 Q The deficiencies and reliability of the
13 information that the city managers' representatives were
14 reporting about rice acreage, would those deficiencies,
15 in terms of the reliability of that information, involve
16 the fact that it is anecdotal information?
17 A Well, I don't know about deficiencies.
18 Limitations might be another term that might be applied.
19 One can say, well, yes, it is anecdotal information, and
20 it is not necessarily clear how -- I guess what one
21 asks, normally, in gathering this kind of information
22 asked to be considered, is how much does the informant
23 know about the particular topic. In this case, the city
24 managers' people know about what is happening in the
25 agriculture of the area.
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1 Q In your estimation, were there any common
2 major concerns that the city manager representatives at
3 this meeting seemed to have?
4 A Major concerns, I guess perhaps the most
5 overriding major concern would be the fact of the heavy
6 -- what they perceived as a very high dependence of
7 their area on agriculture; such that any significant
8 changes in agricultural income and employment-related
9 economic factors was likely to have substantial effects
10 on local communities that they represent.
11 Q So, would it be fair to say that there is
12 some likelihood that their purpose for providing you
13 information at the meeting was not entirely neutral or
14 detached?
15 MS. RAEPPLE: Objection to the form.
16 BY MR. SAXE:
17 Q Do you think that the city managers'
18 representatives might have had any particular bias in
19 presenting the information that they were representing
20 to you?
21 A I don't know if I have a basis for offering
22 an opinion on that question.
23 Q You did get the sense, though, if I
24 understand your testimony, that they had a major concern
25 about the dependence of their areas on the agricultural
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1 industry in the EAA?
2 A Yes.
3 Q What did they understand your purpose in
4 interviewing them to be?
5 A Okay. I believe that, in fact, I was kind
6 of introduced to them by Barbara Miedema, who said that
7 I was gathering information as input into economic
8 analysis that RPC was going to be conducting on behalf
9 of the Sugar Co-op and others.
10 Q The next sentence on the page here says,
11 "Vegetables down a bit;" is that correct?
12 A Yes.
13 Q Have you reviewed the history of vegetable
14 acreage in the EAA?
15 A No. And whether the individual who made
16 that comment was reflecting on the total EAA or on just
17 the immediate area surrounding their particular
18 community is not clear to me.
19 Q The next sentence says, "U. S. Sugar is
20 converting some sugar land and pasture into citrus - big
21 new juice plant"?
22 A Yes.
23 Q Did the source of that information give a
24 reason why this conversion was taking place?
25 A I don't recall them offering a lot of
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1 background explanation. I am, also, not sure exactly
2 the location of this big new juice plant, or whether it
3 was a juice plant that has already been built, or one
4 that is just in the proposal or planning stages.
5 Q Do you know whether there is any new juice
6 plant in the EAA or near the EAA?
7 A No, I don't.
8 Q Do you have an opinion whether there is any
9 potential for expansion of juice processing in or near
10 the EAA?
11 A I was not asked to gather the information
12 that would be really necessary to form an opinion on
13 that issue.
14 Q Do you know whether RPC is or has analyzed
15 the prospects for expansion of other economic activities
16 in or near the EAA in conjunction with the analysis that
17 they're performing?
18 A I don't know.
19 Q I'm sorry?
20 A I don't know.
21 Q In your opinion, in order to do a
22 socioeconomic impact analysis where there is a prospect
23 for significant reduction in the activity associated
24 with one economic sector or industry, is it reasonable
25 to look for other mitigating opportunities for expansion
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1 in other industries as part of that analysis?
2 A I think I'll ask you to repeat the
3 question.
4 MR. SAXE: Could you read it back, please?
5 (Requested portion read.)
6 THE WITNESS: The question is, is it
7 reasonable to look for, like, mitigating
8 opportunities, expansion potentials? And to that
9 I would answer, yes, it is reasonable.
10 BY MR. SAXE:
11 Q In your opinion, in order to do a sound
12 socioeconomic impact analysis of a proposed action,
13 would one have to consider such mitigating expansion
14 opportunities in other economic sectors or industrial
15 categories?
16 A I believe the operative consideration here
17 would be the concept that the baseline analysis,
18 essentially, should reflect current conditions and
19 reasonably foreseeable future changes. And so potential
20 for expansion or contraction in other sectors would
21 logically be incorporated in a baseline analysis, which
22 then sets the context for the impact of the proposed
23 action.
24 And depending on the local circumstances,
25 the baseline changes might either mitigate or,
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1 conversely, might accentuate the effects or the impacts
2 that one might estimate to be associated with the
3 proposed action.
4 Q Do you know whether RPC's baseline is
5 growing, or declining, or steady?
6 A I don't know, in the sense that I have not
7 reviewed the model and the results in any detail.
8 Q Based on your involvement with the case and
9 the inputs that you have given to RPC, does it seem to
10 you that the baseline should be either growing,
11 declining, or steady?
12 A I guess I would say that I don't feel that
13 I have sufficient -- you know, I don't have access to
14 all of the information needed to offer a responsible
15 opinion to the question.
16 Q Going back to the sentence, "U.S. Sugar is
17 converting some sugar land and pasture into some
18 citrus - big new juice plant," in your experience, do
19 farmers often make adjustments over time in farm
20 operations in light of changing economic conditions?
21 A The question is, do farmers often make
22 adjustments in their farming operations in response to
23 changing economic conditions? My answer would be, yes,
24 certainly.
25 Q Can those changes involve converting from
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1 one crop to another?
2 A Yes.
3 Q What other types of adjustments do farmers
4 make?
5 A Well, one could make a very long list, but
6 certainly changes in enterprises, that is, from one crop
7 to another, is an obvious one. Changes in production
8 methods. Mechanization. Shifting from irrigated to dry
9 land production, or vice versa, would be another
10 category of adjustments. Changes in the products
11 produced and changes in production methods would be two
12 very broad categories, and would cover a lot of those
13 adjustments.
14 Q Do you think it is likely that there will
15 be farm adjustments in crops or production systems in
16 the EAA?
17 A As a general proposition, I think I would
18 have to say, yes.
19 Within some time horizon for almost any
20 farming area, it is probably likely that there will be
21 adjustments in crops and/or production methods.
22 Q Do you know whether RPC has provided for
23 that likelihood in any way in their analysis?
24 A I would have to say that I don't know.
25 Q The last paragraph says, "Hendry County -
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1 growth is coming from citrus, pasture to trees, more
2 labor intensive, but this is largely on sand lands
3 outside of the EAA;" is that correct?
4 A Yes. I think that this comment was in
5 response to a question, I believe, that I had asked. I
6 had asked a question of these people, that I believe I
7 had observed, from comparing 1980 and 1990 census
8 information, that there seemed to have been a
9 substantial growth in employment and, as I recall,
10 population within Hendry county.
11 So, I was asking these folks, since they're
12 knowledgeable about local conditions, what they thought
13 might have caused the growth in Hendry County. And this
14 was, essentially, their response. That the main reason
15 they saw for the growth was citrus production, that
16 pastureland was being converted to citrus groves, and
17 that citrus production was inherent -- much more labor
18 intensive activity; therefore, more jobs and so on.
19 But then they pointed out, but this is
20 largely on what they call the sand lands of Hendry
21 County, and that this was outside of the EAA.
22 Q Are expanding employment opportunities
23 outside of the EAA, but in the adjacent area to the EAA,
24 relevant in analyzing the socioeconomic impacts of the
25 SWIM Plan?
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1 A It seems to me that they logically could
2 be.
3 Q If alternative job growth in agriculture
4 were occurring in Hendry County, is it likely that
5 sugar, vegetable and sod workers in the EAA would be
6 more likely to remain in their homes in the EAA and work
7 in those jobs, rather than migrate out?
8 A As a general proposition, I would say, yes.
9 Then I would hasten to add, but one would have to know
10 more about the details. Where will those job
11 opportunities be located? Are they within reasonable
12 commuting distance for EAA residents? Are the
13 requirements for these jobs such that they be compatible
14 with the skills of the EAA workers and so on?
15 Q Given what you have learned about the EAA,
16 what would be a reasonable commuting distance for
17 displaced agricultural employees who were faced with the
18 prospect of outmigrating or commuting and staying in
19 their residences in the EAA?
20 A I really haven't been asked to form an
21 opinion on that question.
22 Q Would you have some professional and expert
23 estimation based on your experience both in the EAA and
24 generally in the field?
25 A In other regions, it seems to me that there
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1 is some evidence that at least a segment of the
2 population is sometimes willing to commute up to an hour
3 one way to employment opportunities. That would be one
4 rule of thumb, if you will, or I guess that is as good a
5 term as any.
6 Q Do you know whether any EAA residents
7 presently commute out of the EAA to employment in other
8 areas?
9 A I don't recall having seen quantitative
10 data on that subject.
11 Q Do you know whether any EAA residents
12 presently commute to the Dade County area to work in any
13 of the agricultural production in Dade County?
14 A Again, I don't believe I have seen that
15 kind of data. That is, percentages of an EAA population
16 or work force that might commute to various types of job
17 sites.
18 Q If there were such residents who presently
19 do commute significant distances for their employment,
20 would that be evidence of an increased likelihood that
21 displaced workers in the EAA might be likely to do such
22 commuting, rather than outmigrating from the EAA, if
23 they were given an opportunity?
24 A That proposition seems reasonable. I think
25 it would be important to know something about the
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1 characteristics of the people who might now be
2 commuting, and how those might compare to the projected
3 likely characteristics of people who might be thinking
4 they might be displaced in the future. But, as a
5 general proposition, information about present commuting
6 patterns might be a factor to be considered in analysis
7 of likely future patterns.
8 Q Are you aware of any employers in rural
9 areas that provide transportation of low wage workers
10 from home to the job?
11 A It seems to me, in some of the documents
12 that we reviewed early on, one of which I believe
13 discussed migrant farm workers, farm workers in the
14 Immokalee, Florida, area, it is my recollection that
15 transportation from town, from the worker's home site,
16 to the fields was something that some employers were
17 reported to provide, yes.
18 Q Do they sometimes do so at significant
19 distances?
20 A I don't remember that particular report
21 talking about distances.
22 Q Do you know whether there are any
23 communities in Hendry County that are larger than
24 Clewiston?
25 A It was my impression that Clewiston is the
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1 largest town in Hendry County.
2 Q Are there any other criteria, besides the
3 reasonableness of the commuting distance, that figure in
4 determining whether employment opportunities or the
5 expansion of employment opportunities outside of the EAA
6 are likely to be relevant to the socioeconomic impact of
7 the SWIM Plan in the EAA?
8 A Well, commuting distance, we, also, talked
9 about the job congruence of job requirements, versus the
10 skills of the people that might be displaced.
11 I guess a third factor would be the
12 projected timing or the new jobs that one might be
13 hypothesizing likely to be created. How does the timing
14 of the job creation relate to the projected
15 displacement?
16 Q Am I understanding you correctly that one
17 would have to consider whether the jobs would be
18 available when the unemployment arose?
19 A Yes.
20 Q Any other criteria?
21 A No. Those seem like some of the major
22 ones.
23 Q Think for a second. Are there any that you
24 would, also, include as being significant in the list of
25 criteria for matching these job opportunities to
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1 displaced workers?
2 A Those three that we mentioned are the most
3 important ones that come to my mind right now.
4 Q Did you draw any conclusions from your
5 meeting with the city manager representatives that is
6 referred to in these notes? Let me clarify that. Not
7 the conclusions referred to in the notes, but the
8 meeting.
9 A Did I draw conclusions from the meeting
10 that is referred to in the notes? I would say probably
11 the only conclusion that I drew from that meeting, in
12 and of itself, was the fact that the city officials
13 seemed very, very clear and kind of unanimous in their
14 opinion and their recognition of the importance of
15 agriculture to the area's economy.
16 Q Did you draw any other conclusions from
17 this meeting?
18 A No conclusions that I would say were based
19 strictly on this.
20 Q In conjunction with the other meetings that
21 are summarized in these notes, though, you may have
22 drawn more conclusions; is that correct?
23 A Yes.
24 Q So, maybe we should save those aggregate
25 conclusions until after we have gone through these
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1 notes?
2 A Okay.
3 Q These next two pages, do these, also,
4 summarize one of the meetings that you had down at the
5 EAA during this period of time?
6 A Yes.
7 Q Which meeting was this?
8 A This was a meeting with a gentleman named
9 Tom Altman, who is a stockbroker with Shearson, Lehman,
10 Hutton. Also, a former mayor of Belle Glade. He was
11 described to me by Barbara as an individual who was
12 quite familiar with the local business community and,
13 generally, with public affairs and issues in the Belle
14 Glade area.
15 Q Did he indicate to you any particular
16 interest or concern that he had, that he wanted to
17 transmit to you during the meeting?
18 A I guess what I thought were the main points
19 of his comments are what are summarized on these two
20 pages. He spoke with us a bit about sort of his
21 perception of demographic changes, of public services,
22 agricultural trends and the like.
23 Q Taking this first paragraph, it says,
24 "Demographic change - More minorities - Large influx of
25 refugees (Haitians) - 4,000 in Belle Glade"?
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1 A And I think that right after the 4,000 is
2 meant to be an H. I think this relates to his estimate
3 of perhaps 4,000 Haitians had come to Belle Glade or the
4 immediate area.
5 Q Was that over any particular time period?
6 A Over a time period -- my impression was
7 something on the order of the previous decade.
8 Q Did you understand that, in his impression,
9 there had been some change in the mix of minorities and
10 non-minorities over that period of time?
11 A Yes.
12 Q And that this influx of Haitians had been
13 one of the factors in that change?
14 A Yes.
15 Q The next sentence says, "Ag jobs attract
16 refugees." Did you have some sense of what he meant by
17 that?
18 A Yes. It seemed to me that what he was
19 saying was that, in his impression, many of the
20 Caribbean refugees, the Haitians and others, when they
21 came to Florida, their main work experience, their main
22 skills, previous work experience, had been in
23 agriculture. Perhaps even in sugar cane production.
24 And so that some of the kinds of jobs that may exist in
25 agriculture in the Glades area would being attractive to
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1 these refugees, because is the kind of work they knew
2 something about.
3 Q Were these Haitian refugees H2A workers, do
4 you know?
5 A My impression was that he was making a
6 distinction between -- perhaps I should say I don't
7 know. It was my impression that he was distinguishing
8 these from the H2A workers. These were people who had
9 come with the intention of staying, as opposed to the
10 H2A workers, who, as I understand it, had come to work
11 for a period of time and then with the intention of
12 going home.
13 Q Do you understand that these Haitians did
14 stay in the EAA?
15 A That was my impression from the interview,
16 yes.
17 Q The next paragraph, "Outmigration. More
18 and more of whites have left Glades area. People who
19 work here, but live in W.P.B." West Palm Beach?
20 A West Palm Beach.
21 Q "Schools are the major factor causing this
22 'white flight.'"
23 A Yes.
24 Q What was meant by white flight?
25 A What he was, essentially, telling me was
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1 that, in his view, more and more of the whites who work
2 in the Glades area are choosing to live not in the
3 Glades area, but, rather, outside of the Glades area, in
4 West Palm Beach, or other suburbs. And, in his view, a
5 major factor motivating this shift or this movement was
6 perceptions of quality of public schools in the two
7 areas.
8 Q Did he represent or indicate that this
9 shift was continuing?
10 A That was my impression.
11 Q Did you form any opinion about that?
12 A I guess I am a bit torn as to how to
13 respond. I think a general rule in these kinds of
14 interviews is that one attempts to, essentially,
15 correlate information from different sources, so that
16 one probably doesn't form an opinion. In most cases,
17 one would not form an opinion based on one interview,
18 but, in fact, would attempt to get additional, you know,
19 input on the question or the topic from other sources.
20 The general method, I guess, is sometimes referred to as
21 the method of triangulation.
22 Q I think we discussed that in your previous
23 deposition.
24 A Okay. So, I probably didn't answer the
25 question. I guess I would say that I didn't form an
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1 opinion based on just on this one interview.
2 Q The next sentence says, "Public school
3 system 90 percent minority in Glades area." What was
4 that about?
5 A Essentially, this was a continuation of the
6 comments about the school situation. And he was saying
7 that it was his impression that the public schools in
8 the Glades area -- which, again, I took to be somewhat
9 synonymous with the EAA -- but it was his impression
10 that the public school system in the Glades area was
11 composed at that point in time of, roughly, 90 percent
12 minority students.
13 Q Do you know how many of the full-time
14 employees in the EAA live outside of the EAA?
15 A No, I haven't seen statistics on that.
16 Q The next sentence says, "Lots of people
17 work in EAA and live outside area. Wellington and other
18 West Palm Beach suburbs are attractive."
19 Do you know who those people are that this
20 speaker was referring to in terms of do they fall into
21 any particular skill or employment category, or
22 vocational category, or any other kind of relevant
23 category?
24 A Some specific examples were mentioned,
25 including, for instance, management level people,
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1 professional level people, were some of the examples
2 given.
3 Q If it is the case that a disproportionate
4 percentage of higher income workers in the EAA live
5 outside of the EAA, does this reduce the income level in
6 the EAA?
7 A The question, as I understand it is, if a
8 disproportionate number of the higher income earning
9 individuals who work within the EAA choose to live
10 outside of the EAA, does this reduce the average income
11 level in the EAA? Which I guess would be compared to a
12 situation where, for want of a better term, you put a
13 fence around the place so that everybody who works in
14 the EAA lives in the EAA.
15 Q No, I'm sorry, that is not what I'm asking.
16 When I say disproportionate, I mean, take the
17 hypothetical that 20 percent of the EAA workers are
18 considered high income category and 80 percent are
19 considered low income category.
20 A All right.
21 Q Ten percent of the EAA workers live outside
22 of the EAA. Would you agree that there would be a
23 proportionate distribution if that 10 percent living
24 outside of the EAA were 20 percent high income and 80
25 percent low income?
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1 A If, in fact, the distribution of people
2 living outside, working within the EAA, if it was the
3 same proportion as the overall EAA work force, that is
4 situation A?
5 Q Right.
6 Now, comparing situation B, which is what I
7 meant to refer to as a disproportionate representation
8 of higher income workers living outside of the EAA, if
9 that percentage of nonresident workers was, say, 40
10 percent high income and 60 percent low income, would it
11 be fair to --
12 A A higher percentage of the high income
13 workers live outside of the EAA, compared to low income
14 workers, then in that second situation the average
15 income, per capita income, or whatever you want to say
16 for the EAA, would be lower; presuming that the income
17 is being computed on a place of residence basis, where
18 people live, as opposed to where they work.
19 Q Would such an effect tend to increase the
20 threshold population that would be necessary for a
21 business to continue to operate in the EAA? Stated
22 another way, would there be a higher threshold
23 population for a business to continue to operate in the
24 EAA in the situation where there was a disportionately
25 high percentage of higher income workers who are
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1 nonresident?
2 A I guess I would answer in a very general
3 sense, yes, all other things being equal. That is to
4 say, all other things being equal, the threshold
5 population, to support a business, should be inversely
6 related to the purchasing power of those residents.
7 However, one would then have to hasten to
8 add that it is probably necessary to, also, get more
9 specific about what type of business; because, in fact,
10 there may be certain types of businesses that are likely
11 to be patronized more heavily by a lower income
12 population, possibly. But as a general proposition, I
13 would agree with your proposition.
14 Q On the next page, 5604 --
15 A Yes.
16 Q -- would you read that top paragraph,
17 please?
18 A Yes. I asked this gentleman my question
19 about what kind of economic development initiatives,
20 efforts, have local communities been pursuing. And his
21 response was that, his perception was, there hadn't been
22 much success in pursuing economic development
23 alternatives and initiatives. That the Glades area
24 found it hard to compete with other areas as a site for
25 new plants or facilities.
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1 He seemed to be saying that the major
2 alternatives that had been talked about recently fell
3 into the category of what he referred to as LULU's,
4 L-U-L-U. I believe the accepted translation of this
5 acronym is locally undesirable land use, or someone
6 would say locally undesired land use. And then he
7 offered such examples as power plants and waste
8 disposal.
9 Q The prison that was referenced in the
10 meeting with the city managers, might that, also, be
11 considered a LULU?
12 A Many individuals, I believe, would consider
13 a prison to be a LULU.
14 Q Do you have any opinion about the
15 likelihood that so-called LULU's will offer a meaningful
16 prospect for the mitigation of socioeconomic impacts,
17 such as one might expect from the implementation of the
18 SWIM Plan?
19 MS. RAEPPLE: Objection to the form.
20 BY MR. SAXE:
21 Q In your experience, and based on your
22 knowledge of the literature, have LULU's provided
23 mitigating or mitigation of socioeconomic impacts in
24 areas that have experienced economic decline in central
25 industries?
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1 A I guess my response would be that I think
2 the cases where this has occurred, where facilities that
3 some people would regard as LULU's, have, in fact, had a
4 role in mitigating implement decline, as you phrased it,
5 certainly, these cases can be identified.
6 Q Did the speaker in this interview indicate
7 any reason why the EAA was having a hard time competing
8 in attracting economic activity?
9 A Again, it seemed to me that he probably
10 made some reference to dimensions like public services.
11 Schools, I think, might have come up, again. And, I
12 guess, also, I think some general comments about the
13 area not having a great deal to particularly set it
14 apart as a highly desirable site for a new manufacturing
15 plant, for instance.
16 Q In what way? Culturally?
17 A Well --
18 Q What kinds of characteristics, I am sorry?
19 A Transportation infrastructure. He then
20 goes on to mention water quality as, also, an issue
21 which he thought would exclude many businesses.
22 Q What did you understand him to mean by
23 that?
24 A I believe he tried to explain further
25 relative -- and, again, I did not understand all of what
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1 he was saying about Florida law and water quality
2 regulations, but he was representing that water quality
3 standards and regulations, he thought, would preclude
4 development of certain types of industry in what he
5 referred to as the Glades area.
6 Q Did he give any specific kinds of perceived
7 water quality problems?
8 A I am sure he gave more specifics than I was
9 able to totally capture or to totally understand. I
10 thought I understood his general conclusion about water
11 quality constraints being something that would limit
12 development, development possibilities or potentials.
13 But I did not understand all of the detail of what he
14 was telling me.
15 MS. RAEPPLE: Keith, would this be a good
16 time to take a short break? In order to maximize
17 the time that you have with him, we need to make
18 arrangements.
19 MR. SAXE: Okay.
20 (Brief recess.)
21 BY MR. SAXE:
22 Q If you would look at page 5605 --
23 A All right.
24 Q -- these are more meetings' notes, I take
25 it?
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1 A Yes.
2 Q This one looks like these were
3 conversations with Jeff Ward, Barbara Miedema, Bill
4 Cramer, Roy Campbell?
5 A These are all Sugar Co-op people. And this
6 was, primarily, a discussion over lunch.
7 Q The first paragraph, would you read that
8 for me, please?
9 A Okay, Jeff Ward. I believe that I had
10 mentioned to Jeff that someone that I had been talking
11 with had been mentioning closing of local businesses,
12 and particularly had mentioned gas stations as examples
13 of local businesses that had closed recently.
14 Jeff's comment was that, in his opinion,
15 the closing of the local gas station was mainly because
16 of new regulations on underground tanks; which I
17 interpreted to mean that gas stations in that area, as
18 around the country, are having to comply with the new, I
19 guess it is EPA, standards for underground tanks.
20 This requires a non-trivial additional
21 investment. And in the case of the gas stations that
22 Jeff was referring to, they had, apparently, decided,
23 rather than to make the investment in new tanks and so
24 on, that they would just go out of business.
25 Q Would you tell me what the next paragraph
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1 refers to?
2 A Again, I probably had raised the question
3 about the inmigration patterns, and the fact that I had
4 heard about some refugees and so on. Barbara, with some
5 comments from some of the others, was commenting that,
6 as she understood it, in the early part of the 1980s or
7 around the time of the Mariel boatlift, they thought --
8 the Mariel boatlift from Cuba, I gathered -- Belle Glade
9 had a large influx of Haitians. And then one estimate
10 was more than 4,000 of these, and these tended to often
11 be impoverished people, often illiterate. And these
12 people were suggesting that a certain amount of social
13 problems in the Belle Glade area, they felt, could be
14 attributed to or tied back to the influx of Haitians.
15 Q Is there a disproportionate amount of crime
16 problem associated with lower income residents in the
17 EAA?
18 A I haven't been asked to really do an
19 analysis or form an opinion on that question.
20 Q Do you know whether the demand for public
21 services in the EAA is disportionately from the demands
22 made by low income consumers in the EAA?
23 A Again, I haven't been asked to really do an
24 analysis or form an opinion on that.
25 Q Would you tell me what the next paragraph
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1 is about?
2 A Okay. We had, in fact, at some point in
3 our travels, driven down the main business district
4 streets. The comment here was that a number of the
5 businesses in the main business district in Belle Glade
6 were closed up at the time I was there. This was late
7 July. And then I was being told that some of this
8 seasonal closing is normal during the summer season.
9 That this mid-summer season is, apparently, a slack time
10 in the Glades area.
11 But some of these people were speculating
12 or reporting that they thought there was some feeling
13 that it was doubtful that some of these businesses would
14 reopen when the season, I gather the harvest season,
15 begins. And they were speculating that the smaller
16 numbers of H2A workers would be the primary reason why
17 some of these local businesses might not reopen when the
18 fall harvest season began.
19 Q Are closed stores in small-town farming
20 communities an uncommon thing?
21 A Are closed stores?
22 Q Yes.
23 A I think the short answer has to be, no,
24 they're not an uncommon thing. In many of the
25 agricultural trade centers through the midwest,
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1 population decline and declining number of retail
2 businesses is a reasonably common phenomena.
3 Q Professor Leistritz, because of our time
4 constraints, I'm going to ask you, if you would, to take
5 a minute, or two, or three, if you need them, and look
6 through the document and review your handwritten notes,
7 and refresh your recollection about the nature of the
8 interviews that are reflected in these notes.
9 A Okay.
10 Q I would like to ask you, when you are done
11 reviewing it, to tell me about the inferences that you
12 drew, any conclusions that you drew, and how you used
13 this information in your subsequent analysis. So, you
14 might keep that in mind as you look through the
15 document.
16 A Okay.
17 MR. SAXE: Would you mark this, please?
18 (Deposition Exhibit 18 marked for
19 identification.)
20 BY MR. SAXE:
21 Q Before we continue with that, just quickly,
22 for the record, I'm handing you what has been marked as
23 Exhibit Number 18. Would you identify that for the
24 record, please?
25 A Exhibit 18 is the vitae or resume for
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1 myself, F. Larry Leistritz. The F stands for Frederick.
2 Fifty-one pages, listing, basically, education,
3 employment history, publications, and other professional
4 activities and experience.
5 Q Thank you.
6 MR. SAXE: Let the record reflect that this
7 is the copy of the resume that was produced to me
8 by counsel for the Co-op yesterday at the
9 deposition, and it has my handwritten notation on
10 the bottom left-hand corner to that effect.
11 THE WITNESS: Dated December, 1993. So,
12 that would be more recent than a similar vitae
13 that was provided a year ago when we did the
14 deposition last.
15 BY MR. SAXE:
16 Q Very good.
17 Going back to Exhibit Number 3, Professor
18 Leistritz, again, what was the purpose of your trip to
19 the EAA to conduct these interviews. And, specifically,
20 when I say what was the purpose, what kinds of
21 information were you looking for and to figure into what
22 aspects of your analysis? Start with the first part.
23 What types of information were you looking for?
24 A I was asking -- most of my questions would
25 fall into areas of economic trends in the area, and
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1 outlook, for that matter. Population trends and
2 outlook. What the people that I was talking to saw as
3 the potential economic development opportunities.
4 Options that they might be pursuing or that might be
5 pursued in the future. Asking for a little more
6 information about the sugar industry work force; how
7 that was composed, seasonal workers, permanent workers,
8 what were the characteristics of the sugar workers?
9 Potentials for shifting to jobs in other sectors. And,
10 also, asking about the respondent's feelings about sugar
11 industry trends, as well as trends and potentials in the
12 agriculture sector, generally.
13 Q And what conclusions did you draw from this
14 information?
15 A Well, for instance, asking a number of
16 people about what they saw as possible development
17 alternatives and so on. There were not a lot of sort of
18 major development alternatives that seemed to surface.
19 The EAA region was seen as having some limitations to
20 its development potential.
21 We discussed the potential of Lake
22 Okeechobee as a tourist attraction with several folks.
23 The general feeling there seemed to be that while
24 fishing recreation-based tourism was a salient factor
25 around the lake, and especially in and around the
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1 community of Clewiston, that this activity was not seen
2 as a likely source of large numbers of new jobs.
3 Q Would it be safe to say that you have
4 concluded that there is not then significant opportunity
5 for expansion of value added economic activity related
6 to existing crop production?
7 A Certainly, this was an issue that was
8 explored with a number of the people that I talked to.
9 These individuals did not identify what they saw as
10 major remediate opportunities for new value added
11 agricultural processing and related activities.
12 I was not, personally, asked to follow up
13 on these topics. So, essentially, my information and
14 notes were turned over to the RPC staff. I was not
15 really asked to follow up on this in a major way.
16 Q Do you know whether anybody has been asked
17 to further explore opportunities for mitigating economic
18 expansion or re-employment opportunities relevant to
19 analyzing the socioeconomic impacts of the SWIM Plan?
20 A I don't know whether and to what extent
21 that has been pursued, or by whom.
22 Q Do you know why you were not asked to
23 follow up on the prospect for things like value added
24 production opportunities in and around the EAA, or other
25 mitigating economic possibilities?
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1 A I would have to say that I don't know. I
2 don't know why I was not asked to follow up on that.
3 Q Were there other conclusions that you drew?
4 You were talking about some of your conclusions about
5 development opportunity.
6 A Probably another dimension then would be,
7 for instance, some conclusions -- or a number of the
8 people that I spoke with provided observations,
9 opinions, about their view of the effect of a decline in
10 the agriculture in EAA on other sectors. A pretty much
11 unanimous opinion that the Glades area or the EAA area
12 was extremely highly dependent on agriculture, so that
13 any changes that reduced income or employment in the
14 agriculture sector would have substantial impacts on the
15 local retail business and services sectors.
16 Also, reports, observations, that
17 unemployment is currently seen as relatively high in the
18 area. That some businesses in the retail sector were
19 seen as currently struggling or in a precarious state.
20 Q Did you draw any conclusions about baseline
21 trends in employment?
22 A Baseline trends in employment. I would say
23 not conclusions, but, certainly, the information from
24 these interviews seemed to suggest to me that these
25 people were not identifying very many possibilities for
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1 significant growth or for employment expansion to offset
2 a significant decline in hypothetically the agricultural
3 setting.
4 Q Was there evidence of a declining
5 employment trend?
6 A Well, again, there was a report of fewer
7 seasonal harvest workers. I don't recall specific
8 numbers being cited for other types of employment.
9 Q Did you draw any conclusions, based on
10 these interviews and your analysis of secondary data
11 that was referenced in your exhibits, about any
12 declining employment baseline? Declining employment
13 trend for purposes of a baseline?
14 A Not conclusions, I guess.
15 Q Did you draw any conclusions about any
16 population trend for purposes of a baseline, relevant to
17 a baseline?
18 A No. I was not asked to draw conclusions or
19 formulate an opinion at that point in time.
20 Q Was there evidence of a declining
21 population trend in your analysis, based on these
22 interviews and the secondary data that you reviewed?
23 A Again, I was not really asked to draw an
24 opinion about baseline population or economic
25 projections at this point.
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1 Q How about businesses, did you develop any
2 opinions or conclusions about any declining trend in the
3 numbers of businesses in the EAA?
4 A I was not asked to formulate an opinion.
5 Certainly, some of the information provided in the
6 interviews seemed to point to declines in some of the
7 retail and service components in at least some of the
8 communities.
9 Q And is that, also, the case with respect to
10 property value trends?
11 A I spent relatively little time on property
12 value trends. I do remember, in at least one of the
13 interviews, the individual indicating his concern about
14 a potential for property value decreases if a set of
15 circumstances arose that led to reductions in numbers of
16 local businesses. And as I think he put it, numbers of
17 business people leaving the area.
18 Q And, in fact, according to your testimony,
19 there was evidence of gas station closings; is that
20 correct?
21 A Yes.
22 Q And of general business district slow-downs
23 attributed to H2A displacement; is that correct?
24 A Yes.
25 Q But you didn't go forward with any further
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1 analysis to determine whether there were such trends?
2 A To pull in secondary data and follow up in
3 different dimensions, no, I did not.
4 Q In your testimony earlier, Professor
5 Leistritz, you indicated that, generally, your purpose
6 for this trip was to look at economic trends and
7 outlook, population trends and outlook, employment
8 opportunities, sugar work force. This is my term,
9 re-employability prospects.
10 Why is it that you were not asked to pursue
11 any of this evidence of declining baseline trends or of
12 prospects for mitigating economic expansion in the EAA
13 or adjacent areas?
14 A It was my understanding that others in the
15 RPC team would be picking up and following on with these
16 analyses.
17 Q Did you have an understanding of who those
18 people might be?
19 A In general, I understood that Eric Schubert
20 and Ed Warren would have a substantial role in the RPC
21 analysis, which would likely include following up on
22 some of the dimensions touched on here.
23 MR. SAXE: Until what time do we have,
24 Counsel?
25 MS. RAEPPLE: 2:00.
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1 MR. SAXE: 2:00 sharp?
2 MS. RAEPPLE: Yes.
3 BY MR. SAXE:
4 Q What time do you have now, Professor
5 Leistritz?
6 A I have about five till.
7 Q Professor Leistritz, time is, obviously,
8 short. I don't mean to cut you off. Did you have any
9 other opinions, generally, that you developed on the
10 basis of this information?
11 A I would say that we have hit the high
12 points.
13 MR. SAXE: Would you please mark this?
14 Never mind.
15 BY MR. SAXE:
16 Q Professor Leistritz, I have here an
17 excerpted copy of a book titled Impact of Growth: A
18 Guide for Socioeconomic Impact Assessment and Planning.
19 A Yes.
20 Q And it indicates that it is by Cantor,
21 Atkinson and Leistritz?
22 A Yes.
23 Q Were you a co-author on this book?
24 A Yes.
25 Q Chapter 3 of this book is titled Public
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1 Service Impacts. Do you recall if that is correct?
2 A It sounds reasonable. My responsibilities
3 for the book, however, were, basically, that I had lead
4 responsibility for only one chapter.
5 Q What chapter was that?
6 A That was the chapter that reviewed economic
7 demographic models.
8 Q That chapter that reviewed economic
9 demographic models, does it contain an accurate
10 statement of your opinions and positions on the matters
11 that it addresses, so far as you are aware?
12 A So as far as I'm aware, and bearing in mind
13 that the book was published in 1985. So, the chapter on
14 models represents my understanding of the
15 state-of-the-art of those models as of, roughly, a
16 decade ago.
17 Q Do you have any familiarity with the third
18 chapter in this book, the one titled Public Service
19 Impacts?
20 A Very limited at this point, I'm afraid.
21 Q Do you have an opinion about whether or not
22 the methodology described in this chapter for performing
23 public service impact analysis is sound?
24 A My opinion would be that it is sound,
25 certainly.
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1 MR. SAXE: Would you please mark this?
2 (Deposition Exhibit 19 marked for
3 identification.)
4 BY MR. SAXE:
5 Q Professor Leistritz, showing you what has
6 been marked as Exhibit Number 19, would you show that to
7 counsel for a moment, please?
8 Would you identify that document, briefly,
9 for the record, please?
10 A Okay. The document is titled Adequacy of
11 the Swim Plan's Cost Benefit Analysis.
12 Q Do you recognize the document?
13 A No, I don't believe I do.
14 Q Is that your document?
15 A No.
16 Q Professor Leistritz, are you expected to do
17 any additional work in the development either of your
18 opinions in this case or any opinions that might be
19 presented by Dr. Luke in this case?
20 A I don't know.
21 Q Professor Leistritz, can you give me an
22 approximate figure as to what the fee for your services
23 in this case has been thus far?
24 A As I recall, I think I have spent something
25 in excess of 300 hours on the case to this point. That
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1 goes back to the beginning, in what, around the first of
2 September, 1992. And RPC has been paying me at a rate
3 of $90 an hour.
4 Q Professor Leistritz, just referring very
5 briefly to the Hazen & Sawyer 20-year contract
6 completion report, economic impact analysis, did you
7 have any involvement in either the critique of Hazen &
8 Sawyer's handling of subsidence, as it relates to
9 economic impact assessments, if you would answer that
10 question?
11 A Some involvement, yes.
12 Q What was that involvement?
13 A I believe I worked with Dr. Luke in
14 preparing an overall review of the Hazen & Sawyer
15 analysis. The subsidence issue was not one that I was
16 asked to particularly focus on.
17 Q Could you tell me what issues in particular
18 that you did focus on?
19 A My major involvement, as I recall, was the
20 question -- the dimension that I was most involved in
21 was the question of whether it would be appropriate or
22 whether it would seem desirable to examine impacts at a
23 more localized level. For instance, at the level of the
24 communities that might be most affected by the different
25 possible alternatives.
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1 Q Did you have any particular involvement in
2 the issue of raw sugar prices?
3 A No.
4 Q Did you have any particular involvement in
5 the issue of sugar cane price per net ton, other than
6 the grower subsidy issue that we discussed earlier?
7 A No.
8 Q Did you have any involvement in the costs
9 used with respect to sugar cane processing costs?
10 A No.
11 Q Sugar cane yields per acre?
12 A No.
13 Q Machinery complement for each model farm?
14 A No.
15 Q BMPs?
16 A Not really, no.
17 Q Sort of on BMPs?
18 A Well, no.
19 MR. SAXE: We seem to be at as good a
20 braking point as any. For the record, the United
21 States notes that this deposition has not been
22 concluded, and reserves the right to continue it
23 at some appropriate future date.
24 MS. RAEPPLE: Let me go off the record for
25 just a moment, and give Dr. Leistritz some
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1 instructions before I respond to that.
2 (Discussion off the record.)
3 (Brief recess.)
4 MS. RAEPPLE: Back on the record.
5 The Co-op would object to any further
6 deposition of Dr. Leistritz. It was identified
7 several weeks ago to counsel that Dr. Leistritz
8 would need to leave today to catch a plane at
9 about this time, and we offered to go forward
10 with the deposition last evening, if that was
11 necessary. Those were the arrangements that were
12 made several weeks ago.
13 Yesterday, when we came to the close of the
14 deposition for the day, we had discussions off
15 the record as to whether to continue into the
16 evening, and Mr. Saxe decided not to do that if
17 we would agree to go from 8:00 until 2:00 today,
18 with only a brief break for lunch, which we
19 agreed to do and have done. And so we feel that
20 there has been adequate opportunity to depose Dr.
21 Leistritz, and would not agree to further
22 deposition.
23 MR. SAXE: The United States notes, for the
24 record, that the inability to complete the
25 deposition within the time that has been
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1 available between yesterday and today is not
2 attributable to any one or two-hour period that
3 might have been made up for last night. But is,
4 instead, a result of extensive production of
5 documents relatively recently; some of which were
6 produced after the deposition of Dr. Luke earlier
7 this month. And because of the fairly extensive
8 amount of work that Dr. Leistritz has done in the
9 case, and the fairly extensive reliance that Dr.
10 Luke indicated in his deposition that he was
11 placing on the work that had been done by
12 Professor Leistritz.
13 MS. RAEPPLE: He will read.
14 (Deposition concluded at 2:00 p.m.)
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1 CERTIFICATE_OF_REPORTER ___________ __ ________
2
3 STATE OF FLORIDA:
4 COUNTY OF LEON:
5
6 I, ANITA M. PEKEROL, do hereby certify that the
7 foregoing proceedings were taken before me at the time
8 and place therein designated; that my shorthand notes
9 were thereafter translated under my supervision; and the
10 foregoing pages numbered 210 through 362 are a true and
11 correct record of the aforesaid proceedings.
12
13 I FURTHER CERTIFY that I am not a relative,
14 employee, attorney or counsel of any of the parties, nor
15 relative or employee of such attorney or counsel, or
16 financially interested in the foregoing action.
17
18 DATED THIS 20th day of March, A.D., 1994.
19
20
21
22
23 __________________________________
ANITA M. PEKEROL, CCR, RPR, CP, CM
24 100 Salem Court
Tallahassee, Florida 32301
25 904-878-2221 or 1-800-934-9090
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1 CERTIFICATE_OF_ADMINISTERING_OATH ___________ __ _____________ ____
2 STATE OF FLORIDA:
COUNTY OF LEON:
3
I, ANITA M. PEKEROL, Registered Professional
4 Reporter and Notary Public in and for the State of
Florida at Large:
5
DO HEREBY CERTIFY that on the date and place
6 indicated on the title page of this transcript, an oath
was duly administered by me to the designated witness(s)
7 before testimony was taken.
8 DATED THIS 20th day of March, 1994.
9
10 __________________________________
ANITA M. PEKEROL, CCR, RPR, CP, CM
11 100 Salem Court
Tallahassee, Florida 32301
12 904-878-2221 or 1-800-934-9090
13 My Commission Expires: February 20, 1995.
14
15
16 SWORN TO AND SUBSCRIBED TO before me, this ______
17 day of ________________, 1994, in the CITY OF
18 TALLAHASSEE, COUNTY OF LEON, STATE OF FLORIDA, by the
19 above person who is personally known by me.
20
21
22
23
24 ___________________________
NOTARY PUBLIC
25 STATE OF FLORIDA
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(AP) 3-16-94 ERRATA_SHEET ______ _____
I have read the transcript of my deposition, pages 1
through 364, and hereby subscribe to same, including any
corrections and/or amendments listed below.
________________ __________________________
DATE: (Dr. F. Larry Leistritz)
(Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative vs. South Florida Water
Management District. Case Nos. 92-3038, etc.)
Page/Line
_________ _____________________________________________
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_________ _____________________________________________
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ACCURATE STENOTYPE REPORTERS, INC.
100 Salem Court
Tallahassee, Florida 32302
904/878-2221
1-800-934-9090
March 20, 1994
RE: Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida vs. South
Florida Water Management District. Case Nos. 92-3038,
etc.
Dear Ms. Raepple:
Enclosed please find your copy of the deposition of Dr.
F. Larry Leisritz, taken on March 15th and 16th, 1994,
in the above-styled case.
As the witness did not waive reading and signing, I am
also enclosing an errata sheet at the back of the
transcript and request that your office make the
necessary arrangements with the witness to read your
copy of the deposition, noting the corrections on the
errata sheet, then dating and signing the errata sheet.
Please forward the dated and signed errata sheet
directly to Mr. Saxe, who is in possession of the
original transcript. If the errata sheet or a request
for an extension is not received within 30 days, Mr.
Saxemay assume that the signature has been waived.
Thank you for your cooperation in this matter.
Sincerely yours,
ANITA M. PEKEROL
CCR, RPR, CP, CM
Enclosures (Errata Sheet and transcript.)
cc: Keith E. Saxe, Esquire
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